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  • dragan7777777777 dragan7777777777 • May 13, 2005 7:06 PM Flag

    sell or buy?

    Hi SM,

    You will ask: what happened? I have said odds are going down unless something happen. It did happen. Two very positive news reports.. and PTC is up. I am sorry that I did not know it will happen, otherwise I will be in. One of the lessons I have learned is : never be sorry for the money you could have made, but always be sorry for the money you lost.

    My method? It will not help you or anybody elese. Every investor has to develop own method, back test it, and apply 100%, no "..buts, ifs, etc...", must be 100% ALL THE TIME! I carefully check fundamentals ( exp.,if I hold a stock more than a couple of days it must have ROE at or over 50% ), than I am buying only when there are strong buy signals ( I like long basing pattern and sudden two-three days price up on huge volume increase with no news, or when 20/50 MA cross 200 MA on huge volume without any news ), and I am selling ALWAYS when there are strong sell signals, no questions asked ( like huge price drop on huge volume )!

    So, how all this works with PTC? PTC cought my attention for strong technical run. But had screaming sell signal ( 20% price drop on huge volume without news ), also, IBD, others ranked it as a "strong buy". Sure sign I am out. Stock had great run, now it is over, analysts are ALWAYS late with recommendations.
    Strong buy means now sell!I have learned this lesson painfully long time ago.

    If you want to learn more read these two books: " When buy means sell" by Eric Shkolnik and " The 21 irrefutable truths of trading " by John Hyden. Make sure that you read these books twice, slowly, and thinking.
    Of course, no book or rule will help you unless you experience it and addopt it and apply it 100%, all the time!

    Good luck

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    • SMDROUIN SMDROUIN • May 16, 2005 7:37 AM Flag

      I agree with you dragon, that huge price drop was a bit more then I like to see for profit taking. But given the huge volume, the huge run-up, and it's quick turn around to get back to the high.
      I stopped out on it, and bought the shares back at 18.81. I did so confidently because I know the gov contracts segment of this company will grow 10x.
      Always hold onto the winners, let them run.
      Shag the losers. You should buy back in at 23.5 because it will steam roll right up to 28.
      take care, happy trading