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Teradata Corporation Message Board

  • stock4166 stock4166 Jun 14, 2011 3:05 PM Flag

    Patiently waiting to short

    TDC is toast. It's just a matter of time. The ACE growth rate this year is 19%. Next year it's 15%. That's poor for an improving tech and data warehousing market. Their sales last FY were $1.9B. If 75% of that is hardware, then that's roughly $1.5B in hardware sales.

    Meanwhile, Oracle's Exadata box is selling like jelly beans. It was specifically designed to take out TDC and it may already be happening. At the last analyst call in March, Hurd said SEQUENTIAL growth for Exadata unit sales and revenues was 50% and they expected it to increase further this quarter. Their product pipeline grew from $500M to over $2B. The only credible revenue figure I have is from the analyst call 6/10 where Ellison said Exadata sales were already over $1B and it was the most successful new product in the company's history. Credit Suisse estimates Exadata sales in the $7-9B range by 2015. While they've sold < 1,000 systems to date, bear in mind that after 25 years TDC only has around 2,500 installed sites.

    On the R&D side, TDC spends $147M versus $3.2B for Oracle. The latter spends 68% more than total TDC revenues on R&D.

    Which horse do you want to bet on?

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