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Hauppauge Digital Inc. Message Board

  • ahlmidezherioff ahlmidezherioff Jan 3, 2007 5:23 PM Flag

    Am I going to take it up the

    a**, with no lube, tomorrow for being long?


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    • We will know a lot more in 5 or so weeks.

      I agree with you that if revenues are there over $32 million with Gross Margins of 20% or more then the stock should do well.

      Certainly new products which they have a bunch of plus software like Wing will have higher margins so we will see.

      I luv this stock

    • There is a reason fast-growing companies with 20% gross margin don't sell for 0.5x sales and it is that there is plenty of independent-thinking retail investors and ambitous small fund managers who will bid up quality stocks even without the WallStreet hype machine. True, HAUP will not sell for 20x sales as some of these overhyped stocks do, however, 1.5x sales is in the cards.

      The reason HAUP was selling for 0.5x sales in the past was that the hard-core enthusiast market was getting saturated, and ASPs of analog tuners were going down. This led to anemic revenue growth and compressing gross margins. Sep05 and Dec05 qtrs were pretty dismal.

      This year is totally different picture. The digital tuner ASPs are holding up, the unit growth is extremely high and as a result you get 30% revenue growth at stable gross margins and stable OpEx. This will be rewarded, no matter what. the 0.5x sales was in a totally different stage of the company.

    • I hear you but their will be no gravy train unless and until the Street comes to recognized HAUP and value it at what it deserves to be valued at.

      Without the proper marketing to Wall Street there is no reason why HAUP could not sell for as low .5 X revenues again under certain market conditions, even if they grow their revenues by 30% over the next two years. This would put put the stock price at $9.00 in two years under those circumstances That is not much of a two year return given the risk here.

      Don't forget the market has been strong and on the average 80% of a stock prices movement is do to the overall market. So if the market goes down over the next 2 years it is not unreasonable to think that HAUP could see again for as low as .5 X revenues unless Wall Street comes to recognize that the company is undervalued.

      I luv this stock

    • Hi, what a stupendous question. Why do you think anyone would know the price of a stock the next day? When the stock stringed a few good days people were screaming "double digits by Tuesday" now we have two down days and all of a sudden "the stock is dead". Stocks do fluctuate, if you haven't noticed. What I can tell you with relatively higher certainty is that based on their sellthrough and expected profits in the December qtr the stock will likely be $10 by the end of February. If that's too long for you to wait, please sell immediately.
      Oh, and to your question: Yes, tomorrow we are going to $4.75, hope you sleep well.

      • 1 Reply to KD_107
      • I was never screaming double digits. I came on this board as a short when the stock was in the $7 plus range and I now pronounce the stock dead under the conditions I mentioned in my previous post.

        I did say:

        !. That the stock had a chance to go to $10, not necessarily over it that it would depend. I also did not say when this would happen.

        2. that if revenues and earnings last quarter exceeded $32.5 million and $.20 respectively that the stock would rise above $10. I still hold by that.

        But until the earnings are released this stock is dead finished and only going down with maybe a small up day or so.

        I luv this stock

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