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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

  • rfj1862 rfj1862 Dec 14, 2005 8:42 PM Flag

    ABGX--very bullish for YMI

    I'm writing this for the crowd that will inevitably show up--not talking down to the regulars. :-)

    Several points to make here on ABGX buyout:

    1) The $2.2 billion price of ABGX was based on 3 factors: 1) panitumumab; 2) AMG162; 3) manufacturing facilities.

    2) Nimotuzumab (in P3) is inherently superior to both cetuximab and panitumumab because it does not cause rash

    3) The acquisition implies that Amgen feels that Imclone's patent on use of an anti-EGFR antibody in combination with chemo is not valid. Amgen has very deep pockets and will likely break the patent (very good for YMI)

    4) YMI also has tesmilifene, which has exceedingly good prospects to meet or exceed the survival values obtained in the first phase III.

    5) YMI has AeroLef, which will address multi-billion dollar markets. Phase IIb will be initiated and completed in the first half of 2006.

    6) YMI also has norelin. Haven't heard much about the development program; in addition, they have the propargylamines portfolio.

    In summary, YMI has 2 late phase 3 products and 2 phase 2 products, plus substantial intellectual property in the proparglylamines. It has great management. And--most importantly--it's valued less than some other companies with a single Phase 1 product.

    Given all of the above facts, YMI should be worth an ABGX-like buyout price, but I'm a realist. I'll take $1.1 billion ;)

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