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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

  • DnWang DnWang Mar 16, 2012 3:32 PM Flag

    Correct me if I am wrong

    I think the steps INCY did are

    1. INCY had solid PII data first,
    2. move to PIII trial next.
    3. issue more shares to raise more money
    4. Got partnership deal.

    step 2 might be step 3, step 3 might be step 2 but doesn't matter.

    YMI issue more shares before CYT387 PII final data.This is difference between INCY and YMI.

    I think we (includes big pharma) all need to wait until PII final data to get idea where this stock going. Before that, no one really sure and that is exactly YMI trading pattern in these days.

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    • wang,
      Was someone unloading shares at ECYT, AVII, and CLDX when it was going down before the huge runup?

    • Someone definitely is unloading shares quietly, that is why YMI sitting at $1.85 today. We'll find out who is unloading soon.

    • That is a very erroneous and misleading table in the seeking alpha article.

      Both the THLD and YMI investments are shown to be "cut" in that table. THLD holding was never reduced significantly,that is why change in value for THLD is shown to be 0.

      YMI is the same case; only due to dilution one of the measures "% of outstanding shres in the class" might have changed and that is being interpreted as if some shaes have been sold. The table in seeking alpha also shows only 1 million reduction in value for YMI.

    • And question is,

      YMI already have 75 M cash on hand, that money should be enough for 2 years. Why would YMI issue 30M shares before CYT387 PII final data? You would say, that is the money for PIII trial or for partnership deal. But I guess is that YMI wants to play safe way and allow company continue operation for at least 3+ years in case negative PII final data. If YMI are so confident PII data, company can issue shares after the good news and can issue less shares with higher price.

      Guess what? Management doesn't show same confidence as some of you here. Again, I am not short.

      • 2 Replies to DnWang
      • "And question is,

        YMI already have 75 M cash on hand, that money should be enough for 2 years. Why would YMI issue 30M shares before CYT387 PII final data? You would say, that is the money for PIII trial or for partnership deal. But I guess is that YMI wants to play safe way and allow company continue operation for at least 3+ years in case negative PII final data. If YMI are so confident PII data, company can issue shares after the good news and can issue less shares with higher price.

        Guess what? Management doesn't show same confidence as some of you here. Again, I am not short."

        When an investor unknowingly fall in love and secretly marries a stock, others opinions not aligned with yours are thrown out in the garbage.

        If someone invested in YMI and continuously/religiously compares what happened with INCY, hoping the same path will happen here, I think is seriously mistaken (IMHO)

        Over the years that I have followed this company from Tesmilifene failure, the shelving of AeroLef and Nimotuzumab, they have done the old biotech bait-and-switch twice.

        What am I talking about? I see a remarkable pattern, in a way. It started when the comparison began with Erbitux vs. Nimo. Nimo was always described as a value-added version, so they often make a big deal about some putative safety benefit without ever really emphasizing the efficacy. The so called "No Rash". We all know where Nimo is now.

        Now comes Incy's 424 vs 387, and this time it's "anemia".

        I hope i'm wrong with my thesis because if the anemia benefit doesn't hold up....this will be as close to being dead money.

        Speculation is the mother of all evil!


        O/T - AVII - $1.39 - Phase IIb for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy is scheduled to be reported at the end of April. Could make a THLD type of a move. 50 is about to move past 200 :)

        Good luck!

      • Did you hear the speach the CEO made at the Roth conference and his references to their ongoing PII data? If there are any concerns about efficacy or safety, they are playing one heck of a bluff.

        YM DID issue new shares after the PII data came out, and that data was very solid. This final part of the PII trial is a BID trial only, about 1/3 the patient number, effectively attempting to get a definitive answer on optimal dosing for PIII, so very little new "critical" data expected IMO.

        I gotta think that investors primarily want to know that YM has a solid partner to help them get 387 through PIII and to market. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where big pharma would not want a part of CYT 387's indication for MF and for all the other possible JAK indications. As far as the PPS goes, I am reminded of the simple yet profound "This too shall pass."

        I have been in this baby for almost 2 years now, I've ridden her up and down, buying the whole way, sitting a little better than even, feeling quietly confident that good things come to those who wait.

        Have a wonderful weekend.

    • You're absolutely right, Wang! Thanks. Looking forward to a great SGEN week next week, until the big boys dump again at the highs and start the next downhill ride.

    • Are you kidding me? What a easy chart! SGEN just had golden cross on 3/13. Everyone should bought SGEN on 3/13.

    • Good point, Wang. Now look at SGEN's recent price movement, including today's AH, and tell me what your charts foretell.

    • You're not wrong, but you're also not factoring in that Incyte blazed the trail for 387. It's known that JAK1/2's have efficacy so they don't need to reprove this. It's a similar drug but better. Incyte's Phase 1/2 had a median duration of one year. I don't know the median duration of YM's, but I do know some patients had been on 387 for up to and exceeding 2 years at the time of ASH.

      We have a major difference of opinion.

      You seem to highlight the fund raising as proof that something is right because they raised before the results.

      It's my opinion that they raised because they're close to partnering and need to improve their negotiating position. It's also my opinion that partners are comfortable enough with the data they've seen to move forward with a partnership.

      It's a philosophical debate regarding when a partner should move forward. You think that a partner should wait for the final data and that's a valid point. I think a partner should move aggressively when they've seen enough to make them comfortable. If you're confident enough then move before the rest and lock up a potential great asset.

      You cited Incyte to support your opinion. Allow me to cite Galapagos Pharma to support my opinion. In February of 2012, Galapagos licensed their JAK 1 for rheumatoid arthritis to Abbott for $150M up, $200M once the Phase II is completed and hits certain preset criteria and up to $1B in milestones. That candidate has only completed a 4 week Phase 2a and still has dosing studies and larger Phase 2's. Contrast that with what YM is sitting on and the dataset they have.

      Galapagos was a lucky break for YM because now they have a true comp in the JAK space. That was a beautiful deal with large pharma and will serve as a comp. Incyte is not the only JAK in town. The indication might be the same but JAKs are hot right now.

      The question here isn't when data is coming. It's if a partnership is coming first. A partnership can always be designed to award for positive data or back away if it's not positive. In my opinion you should study Galapagos if you want a good idea of what can happen for YM. All my opinion so do your own DD.

    • Perfect ....