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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

  • ejparchitect1 ejparchitect1 May 23, 2012 8:08 AM Flag

    MS on YMI?

    Incyte competition under-appreciated, says Morgan Stanley
    Morgan Stanley said current consensus estimates do not reflect myelofibrosis competition, which could impact Incyte's Jakafi sales. Shares are Equal Weight rated.

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    • Morgan Stanley is under heavy fire right now for their prank on Facebook. Doesn't matter what they say now, people won't trust em

      • 1 Reply to imshirazy
      • This is what MS said today in a note regarding Incyte, exactly - no specific mention of YMI:

        Rating: Equal-weight
        Below we discuss our evolving thoughts about myelofibrosis (MF) market competition, as we expect to see increased competitor data flowstarting in 2H12. We do not currently model competition for Incyte (INCY) as most other JAK's have struggled. However, in light of: a) the growing Jakafi driven valuation; b) the evolving and more crowded competitive landscape, and c) the longer development horizon of Incyte's
        pipeline assets, we see it as worth noting.
        Short-Term: Competition with Trials Could be Real. From, we estimate that there are ~1k patients to be enrolled in currently
        recruiting MF studies and a total of ~1.5k MF patients either to be recruited or in ongoing trials (~12% of our 2012 U.S. addressable market - many, but not all, trials are U.S. only). Given that higher volume (academic) docs are likely to continue to enroll their patients predominantly in
        clinical trials, we see competition for academic patients and locating community patients as a near-term risk that could persist if the current drugs move into Phase 3.
        Long-Term: A True Competitor Will Affect Valuation. While we do not model a competitor given the low success rates to date, we do believe that the acceleration in companies with new JAKs or other drugs in the clinic for MF increases the risk of competitor success, although importantly not all non-JAK drugs will be direct competitors. Since we have always viewed Jakafi as a strong drug that could address most highly symptomatic MF patients, we do not expect a new entrant would meaningfully grow the market size. Rather, we expect a
        primarily share driven dynamic, where even a competitor that gains 30% share of just new starts (no switching) would meaningfully impact our DCF (DCF would go from $16 to $13), as operating leverage would lessen due to the relatively high R&D spend (may be less malleable in 2013-17 as Incyte pays 30% of Phase 3 RA spend).

    • Hmm.. then what competition is MS referring to?

    • They got that right! Did they dare mention YM by name?

    • but is there any mention of YMI in the MS report? also, isn't that an old report from February?

      i'm long YMI but not alot is on the horizon in terms of communication except Allan speaking on the 30th. Incyte has 3 healthcare conferences in June alone.