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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

  • renmanaz renmanaz May 24, 2012 10:21 AM Flag

    Partnering facts

    As one who has been involved in these types of negotiations, albeit in a different industry, let me offer a few comments.

    What may start out as a wish for a simple partnering relationship for a single product frequently becomes more complex on several counts:

    1) Multiple partnering prospects may emerge.
    2) Different partner prospects may have different objectives. In the case of YMI, one prospective partner (PP) may wish only to partner one drug while another PP may wish to partner multiple drugs.
    3) There may be geographic concerns. One partnet may wish global rights while another may wish only to license/partner a specific geography.
    4) Along the way, partners may become buyers; i.e., a party beginning partnering discussions may enlarge his interest to encompass purchase of the entire company...or just outright purchase of a specific drug candidate...or there may be royalty discussions going back and forth regarding percentages, milestones.
    5) If discussions go down the road of purchase of the entire company, due diligence must be undertaken on all of the company's drugs and the company's 4,000 compound library...again, royalties can enter into this aspect of the purchase discussion.

    My bottom line: there are far too many variables involving possibly multiple PPs, each with different goals and objectives to make this a "slam dunk" type of negotiation that can be quickly concluded. I'm quite sure that investors like the Bakes Bros. and investment bankers may be called in at some point to assist the company in sorting out its options.

    Rather than conclude that the company is planning to "go it alone," I'd be more likely to conclude that this is a complex matter possibly involving multiple parties, many options, lots of due diligence and multiple deadlines. Sometimes, when you think you have a deal all but signed, another party emerges to throw their hat into the ring thereby delaying the process even further.

    I'm not saying any or all of this may be happening but I am suggesting that whatever is going on may take longer than many here expect. In the end, it all gets down to whether one trusts management.

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    • Completely agree.

    • I think part of the delay is that 387 is applicable to many indications and the JAK library has so much promise. We could see a massive deal for the entire JAK franchise. Finding the partner capable of handling all the indications will be tough. However, companies like Amgen, BMS or Pfizer would be ideal. Celgene is great but slightly more limited than the others. I've counted groups like Novartis, Lilly and AstraZeneca out because of their existing JAK programs. Japanese large pharma might also fight for this.

    • Thanks. Well, that's great for us and it does lead me to think that partners are satisfied. Plus, I agree that the potential partners are seeing the data.

      I love the JAK deal that Galapagos did with Abbott. That's a true comp and bodes well for YM. The indications are different but JAKs represent a drug class that is proven and extremely lucrative. YM appears to be sitting on gold. Very exciting times.

    • We can easily run to $3 on speculation of a partnership. With a partnership, $5 or $6!

    • Btw I believe that Glover tipped his hand post ASH when he said that they amended the protocal to allow for MRIs from the ongoing P1/2 trial. Why did he do that when their would be MRIs coming in from the BID trial? Because potential partners are satisfied with what they've seen on anemia. They want MRI data.

    • You are right. Because it's an open label study, as soon as potential partners are satisfied with MRI data, we have our deal. Their might be enough data right now which may explain the activity because it's not Nimo. I gave this a lot of thought. We know that Ym has been talking with potential partners since before ASCO 2011. Since then we have have two data reads that have exceeded expectations. So what's the hold up? I concluded that it could only be MRI data. That being said, we must be close.

    • I still think a deal can be done before all the other news based on milestones that are met. I think we are very close to a deal because as the investormd pointed out, the partner will want to give their input on phase 3 trials.

    • Looks like you are right. This from James-

      "We will be reporting data from both of our trials at the end of 2012, including MRI data from 60-80 patients."

      My guess is that partners are watching this data roll in and when they're satisfied we have our deal, or the first of several. I like your thinking, a partner by the end of Q3 and lots of positive news flow into ASH.

    • Excellent, thanks. I lobe boards where investors are actually really keeping up with things. Like you, I'm following everything as closely as I can. It will be interesting to learn what you find out.

      I'm fully expecting that they're going to hold the data until late year and then hit the big 2013 events.

      Just my opinion, but what I would like too see is a large pharma partnership between now and then end of Q3 and then a steady stream of positive news in Q4 to be highlighted at conferences throughout 2013 as that will be a huge driver.

    • anyone have thoughts as to why the volume was well over 2 million shares today? about 1.5 million over what you'd expect for YMI on a non-news day. since the price stayed elevated all day, obviously some accumulating going on.

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