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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

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  • investormdpart2 investormdpart2 May 24, 2012 11:22 AM Flag

    Partnering facts

    All very true. Two major comments and then my list of potential partners and my reasoning.

    1. Discussions have been going on for well over a year at this stage which is a positive.

    2. YM is tipping us off about the timing in my opinion with their estimates for the launch of a Phase 3. No way are they fully designing or launching a Phase 3 without the involvement of a partner and no way would a partner accept this. Trial design is everything.

    Side note, I keep up with what large pharma is doing. Amgen just named their new CEO. He is on record as saying that he wants to expand the pipeline. Amgen has done some really shareholder friendly deals with smaller outfits. The massive BioVex deal comes to mind which was $425 million upfront, plus another $575 million in additional development and sales milestones. and then the $1.16B deal for Micromet this past January. Amgen is an anemia powerhouse. They might have a better idea of how to position 387 for the anemia impact than anyone IMO.

    Bristol-Myers: Love them for this asset. They are out of the JAK race at this moment, but could assume the lead position via a deal with YM. BMS is very powerful in oncology. I really like them for this program and follow on indications. Assets in YM's library must appeal as well.

    J&J: Powerful in anemia again and great drug franchise. I read an interview by the ceo recently and it seemed to be all about devices. Not ruling them out, but maybe not in my top three.

    Pfizer: Have the lead JAK 1/2/3 rheumatoid arthritis candidate that just got the nod from the FDA advisory panel. Pfizer knows JAKs and they could build a franchise around them. YM probably has an RA candidate in that massive JAK library that can be a follow on for Tofacitinib which is Pfizer's candidate. Pfizer is top five.

    Celegene: Love Celgene for this because they've lived this dream and because of their focus in this area. They are capable of a huge deal. Keep in mind that with Celgene's revlmid, they only saw 56 days of trasmission independence! 387 is destroying that right now. Celegene is a dream for oncology and hematology indications, but I'm worried about follow on things for conditions like rheumatoid arthritis.

    AstraZeneca: Have a JAK2 in phase 1 for myelofibrosis. I don't see them partnering here. They also are partnered with Rigel for Fostamatinib which is Rigel's rheumatoid arthritis candidate. I don't list them as a likely candidate.

    My favorites in any order for the above reasons are Amgen, Bristol-Myers, Pfizer and Celgene. I might be missing some obvious other groups but it's just my opinion that all of these would be great partners. I suppose my only concern with Celgene is that they're smaller and could be a takeover candidate themselves. We would have great stability with Amgen, BMS or Pfizer.

    Anyway, just my speculations. I know one thing. Large pharma is looking...this is a beautiful candidate.

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    • sounds like you're saying J&J doesn't no Jak?
      Sorry for the bad joke.
      Thanks for a really excellent post.

    • Great posts ren and investorm. What we are waiting for is the MRI data read this summer. This is a game changing event. I believe a deal is already worked out and simply waiting on this readout. Have a great day!

      • 1 Reply to dmattingly62
      • I don't think that's coming this summer. Can you let me know where you're seeing that? You might want to check with investor relations but my understanding is that no data is coming until year end. However, the data reported to date is incredibly robust. Also, the BID is open label so it's highly possible that YM has seen the MRI data if it has already been generated.

        Anyway, I don't mean to be rude so if you do know something or heard something then please do let me know. thanks.

    • Here are a few additional thoughts:

      1) JAK, as additional indications are flushed out, will clearly be a $1 Billion ++ revenue drug for whomever takes it to market. And this includes the fact that there may be a couple of drugs/companies in the space.

      2) Large pharma, for the most part/in general has both skimpy drug pipelines at this time as well as perhaps the most amount of cash in its history.

      3) Putting those facts together makes for a compelling case that YMI is likely in discussions with perhaps several large pharmas about a relationhip/partnership.

      4) I do not disagree that YMI may have been sharing interim data with prospective partners and, in fact, large pharma may have been quite active in feedback looping with YMI to design/determine what they believe gives YMI and prospective partners both the best chances for commercial success and a successful partnership ("Remember we were the company who suggested ............" is a pretty good way to move towards partnership).

      5) Botton line: Rather than anyone thinking we're sitting back waiting for something to happen, it does appear that YMI is very, very active at the present time.

      6) Last point. As discussions with potential partners get under way, one of the first things both parties sign is an NDA (non-disclosure agreement). This is why there has been nothing much said about who may be in play as that would be a deal killer...plus, with multiple discussions likely ongoing, NDA management is crucial so as not to inadvertently "leak" another company's name...though large pharma guys generally know who is doing what in a competitive sense so there may be some pretty informed guessing going on anyway.

      Such "guessing" may actually spur a faster, better and larger financial deal if a company seeking a position in the JAK space thinks a competitor is close to inking a deal that will push them out of the space they covet.

      We should be in for a few very, very interesting weeks/months...or however long it takes to come to "the deal."

 

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