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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

  • barry_1215 barry_1215 Dec 4, 2012 2:49 PM Flag

    Incy?

    Is it possible that Incy would want to buy YM and that Baker had to bail to avoid conflict of interest?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Jiga, based on my conversation and question about baker brothers, I got the impression that incy is not one of the candidates so I agree with your statement

      • 2 Replies to epritske
      • I'm not sure why INCY is brought up but no one looks at the balance sheet. INCY only has $251mm as of March 30th of this year, which is lower than 3 months prior of 281, so I can only assume it went down a little more and has not been made up in sales yet. INCY does NOT have the resources to buy out YMI without completely depleting their cash and then, on top of that, diluting their shares JUST to get to the current price of YMI.
        Now, in regards to partnership, Jakafi and Ruxo are INCY's starlets, it would be cannabalistic (as a business move) to partner or merge with a company who's main drug does the same as yours, except with slightly better side effects. It would make sense if they wanted to further develop their own drug, or if they had numerous others in the pipe that already made them money. This is not the case, and a partner with INCY would be a terrible business move. If this somehow happened, I wouldn't be holding very long, as when people realize the severe dilution that came from it, prices reflect soon after.

      • Jiga, as per Ymi, placebo is enough for us but for Europe it needs to be against best available which they said was not jakafi but what jakafi went up against in the Europe phase three

    • I've commented a number of times that I could easily see that. A few posters felt that anti-monopoly laws would come into play but i don't think so. 387 works for the anemia benefit so you could easily have a label that simply doesn't conflict and then you would expand 387 to other indications having nothing to do with the additional indications that Jakafi would go after. The upside to all could be enormous because Jakafi does have big potential in so many other indications and they're a JAK powerhouse. I did very well owning INCY and think it's a great company. I bought into YMI when I realized that the anemia benefit was so astounding.

      It's possible that there isn't a better home than INCY for 387 as long as they advance it and don't put it on the shelf. However, the anemia benefit is too huge and too lucrative to ignore.

      Baker could have to sell due to a conflict of interest or because they're keeping the price lower which would be a conspiracy theory and impossible to prove.

      Anyway, things here are very interesting. It looks like everything is going to start moving much faster starting next week. The new JAK data will be key.

 

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