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Silvercorp Metals Inc. Message Board

  • pm_guru_1 pm_guru_1 Oct 26, 2011 2:05 AM Flag

    Congratulations SVM longs

    After owning from $2, sold out in the low-mid teens. I reentered during the panic. Knew what an outstanding company this is. Bot quite a lot at $6-8 and sold out into the Monday spike for quick 20-50% 2 month gain. Now reallocating to more undervalued miners.

    Besides core positions in seniors: PAAS CDE and top emerging midtiers like AG and Tahoe Resources, I like the following small cap silvers:

    AUMN. Stock went from $6 to $30 and back to $6. Accumulate now for a multiyear run IMO. Dynamic merger with ECU. Has only 38M shares fully diluted. Has $100M cash. Velardenas will be 1.5M Ag-eq producer next year and will ramp up to 4-5M ozs. HUGE DISCOVERY - El Quevar, very high grade "company maker" (and the reason for the $6 to $30.) El Q = JEWEL. It's very large and high-grade. These guys have a HUGE resource base and only a $300M market cap. VERY cheap. It's beaten down to a pulp and is going to make a lot of people a lot of money eventually.

    Aurcana. 1M oz mine in Mex, and next year Shafter mine in Texas boosts them to 4-5M ozs. So 4-5x production increase. AWESOME! Sub $1 stock ==> several dollars in another year or so IMO.

    Silvermex @50c. Tiny market cap, small production, but excellent former Hecla mgmt. Will boost production from outstanding assets.

    GPL. No-brainer at $2. Expect volatility until prove themselves with expanding production (they have high-grade, but narrow vein systems, which are difficult to drill and prove out, but these systems go ON AND ON AND ON.) You have to understand geology to "get" this. GPL will be producing Ag for decades even though their resource base looks small.

    Tahoe. Former GLAMIS ALL STARS run this. Smartest,most effective guys on the planet imo. Among the biggest low-cost silver mines in the world. Fully cashed up. They'll make shrewd deals and build this company into something special imo. GG owns ~40% of this.

    I like the UXG/MNEAF deal. Ran and owned by Rob McEwan (founder of GG!) Will be a huge winner. Absolutely beaten to smithereens, a great time to buy low RIGHT NOW imo.

    SSRI. Been a real laggard. It had a superb run until 2007. Simce, beaten down and consolidating. Now trading very cheap. Excellent assets. Pirquitas is 8-10M oz producer. Pitarilla and San Luis are mines #2 and #3. SSRI: crapload of silver, more than anyone. $400M cash in the bank and huge shareholding in Pretium Resources (about $300-350M I think). So for $1.5B market cap just subtract the cash and marketable securities and SSRI trades SUPER DUPER CHEAP here.

    I also like a few very small up and comers: Silvermex, US Silver, and Impact. These are microcap silvers with a good production pipeline, current cash flow, decent balance sheets, and dare i say potential takeover candidates for midtier silver companies like First Majestic, Endeavor, Hochschild, UXG, Fortuna, and other companies with the financial wherewithal to make a good small accretive buyout.

    Eric Sprott is correct. Au was the investment of the last decade. Ag will be the investment of this decade. Known this for 6 years. The sooner everyone else learns Ag's unparalleled fundamentals the sooner they too will increase their wealth substantially.

    Gold will go to 1:1 with the Dow to conclude the bear market currently, and FIRMLY in place. Silver will go to 15:1 vs. gold AT LEAST and probably overshoot to 10:1 which means silver will be valued at several hundred dollars per oz even without a TRUE hyperinflation. People don't understand this: THEY MUST OWN PMS - EVEN WITHOUT HYPERINFLATION, BIG INFLATION IS ASSURED. It's the ONLY way the central planners can escape the debt debacle the world is TRAPPED into.

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    • AUMN had a nice day today, I guess someone was waiting for this opportunity to cover shorts?

    • Oct 26, 2011 10:11 AM Flag

      Thanks for your post. The difficulty with small cap recommendations is that one is (perhaps unfairly)classified as a promoter/pumper or if your picks go south, a fool.

      We've just experienced a big run up in the SP of SVM. As I've witnessed in the past, at this particular point in time, folks like yourself appear on this board with recommendations.

      It happens like clockwork.

      You'll excuse me, but I personally find it ironic that you're suggesting we buy some juniors with our profits from SVM. By virtue of
      me being 'here' with profits and you being 'there' (with picks)...I'd suggest that our process is better than yours and that we should be sharing our process with you.

      After a big run up, I've never seen a post that said " How did you folks know this stock headed north?" Always lots of recommendations though.
      I guess that's the way.

      I thought you'd appreciate another perspective
      to consider.I certainly don't wish you ill. In fact, good luck. Trading stocks is a tough business.

      At least you did take the time to write something that was well thought out. And hey, it isn't spam.

      Best of luck to you.

      • 1 Reply to
      • @Instant, just putting some stuff out there - take it or leave it. Never said that you need to "sell SVM and buy these juniors." I like SVM, but prefer using juniors to hold to make the big money. I use larger companies for a "ballast" to my portfolio and often "flip" them when the market gets overbot. It's my experience that large cap PM stocks range trade for an eternity, but a good junior will make me 100,200, or 1000% in a year or two if I buy right and am very patient (and maybe lucky.) I made good money on SVM in 2 months. I bot a lot 6-8 and dumped all Monday on the spike. I was satisfied with 25-50+% gain and moved on. I'm sure SVM will keep doing well.
        "Which are my favorites of those I listed?" That's tough, basically all of them. I know from experience you NEED TO OWN A BASKET for maximum "safety" and performance. My port is practically a PM mutual fund. I just threw a few out there that I think could offer long term upside. I could be wrong and everything could go against us ST. Basically want nothing to do with general economy. No bonds. Some energy for income. Staples, also for income. Few "oddballs." Some non-PM comm. plays (agriculture/food/base mtls). I spread out. I go in small for initial positions, sometimes a bit more. If something goes against me and my convictions remain strong, I take the pain and increase my position. There's usually handful that I am overweight on at any time. For example last yr i was severely overweight AG GPL MNEAF EXK because I knew silver was gonna make a big move and these stock would go gangbusters and they did. When they really swell up, trim it down and use the money to build up your cash position and your bullion position, which is a MUST to stay solvent and protected in this day and age. Get a nice windfall profit, branch out to new names.

        Other advice? Hmmm. Balance between gold and silver. I think its a mistake to own a lot of gold and little silver. I still prefer silver over gold at this ratio. I think you should stick to producers over explorers until you are experience and make good money to have a little risk capital. Near term producers are good if they are fully funded to production - companies like Detour and Tahoe would fit the bill. Like to see a growth profile (where will the next mine come from, do they have organic potential and can they afford to develop it). Avoid problematic countries entirely - not too much in Africa or iffy areas of SA. I hate Ven and Ecuador and Bolivia. I own CDE,has a mine in Bol but that's an exception and they have many mines. MUST have bullion in physical form as my asset base. I think growing midtiers make a good "ballast" for a portfolio - IAG and AG for example. Don't care for seniors although I like NEM because of the dividend policy and its made a 15 year base and should breakout hard. I like PAAS and CDE which are silver "seniors" although they have midcap MCs. Basically I take the same approach to miners as any other stock - good mgmt? growth? low valuation? stabe outlook and cash flows? etc.

        Another thing - never catch yourself w/o plenty o' dry powder, the big drawdowns occur sometimes when least expected. Hold your wad for when things get "stupid cheap" and panic is full force. USD are pieces of chit, BUT you need to have some! Devaluation is a PROCESS. Hyperinflation isn't imminent imo although I expect "major" inflation.

        Hope this helps, had to learn this the hard way. Glad i did. I don't buy willy nilly and more careful about risk mgmt. I'm not a professional, just an goldbug with some success and this is all my opinion; you must do your own DD and be responsible for yourself.

    • PM, thanks for the tips. In order to help along with my due diligence, if you don't mind, would you identify your favorite few among all of the companies you listed?


    • this is the problem if you are wondering where is the short squeeze? traders happy to make a few bucks and then sell out, not willing to put the squeeze on, what a joke you are sir.............

    • This is a good writeup I own a couple of these and want to own a couple more badly. What do you think about Minco Silver? I think that one is the cheapest of them all right now.