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Silvercorp Metals Inc. Message Board

  • silverpunter silverpunter Nov 23, 2011 11:23 AM Flag

    I thought Silver was heading higher

    I thought Silver was heading higher and bought in @9.40 But on the way, the EU news pushed the US$ to over 79.12 and here we are on the trough of this present cycle, but we will not be here for too long, QE3 will be needed just to generate business activity and prop the unemployment.

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    • Very interesting. Looked at the charts on those dates and the is a definite lag as far as missing the top or bottom but if one traded on those signals buy/sell, short/cover one could still make some nice profits. Thanks for taking the time to explain JM, do appreciate and will pay attention to these indicators going forward. Still far more upside potential here going forward than down, but in this rigged gig who knows. Technically and fundamentally as has been stated, these are fire sale prices and at some point one would think shorts would be wise to start covering. But them none here knows how deep their pockets are and who is backstopping them.

    • "Would a double trigger like that make for a more explosive move back to the upside?"

      Specific answer for this question is RSI bottom formation is a process with various degrees of oversold (single (7), double (7&14), triple (7&14&28) RSI alert).

      As you know, oversold can get more oversold, then oversoldest. ;)

      Overbought can do the same around the RSI 70 level.

      It's the transition through the 70/30 level where it's time to get the heck in or out and the accumulation zones where risk (buy or sell) is low.

    • We're very close to a double RSI accumulation alert now, if not already. August 8th was the last time the RSI(14) fell under 30 and the RSI(14) buy alert was triggered Aug 9th. Aug 8th was a double accumulation zone alert b/c both RSI(7) and RSI(14) were below 30 simultaneously. RSI(7) buy alert was triggered Aug 10th as RSI(7) moved up through 30.

      Thus, on Aug 10th, a double RSI buy alert was triggered at a price of $8.79 (just as A*L short attack piled on, LOL!)

      Oct 11th, RSI(7) sell alert at $8.76 (basically flat), then again Oct 25th @ $9.41, (you were green here despite the short attack) with a clear RSI(7) sell alert if you had bought the Aug 10th RSI(7) buy alert.

    • Okay if I add a 14 to your chart it is currently at 33 so we still have some room to move. Would a double trigger like that make for a more explosive move back to the upside? I mean at some point the daily candle is going to want to work it's way back inside the lower bollinger band. Now mind you t could do that just by consolidating sideways for a day or two. Short of a concerted effort to take SVM down this has WAY more potential for an upside move or explosion given some favorable markets conditions. I'm just hoping if we can get through this last Futures OE on Monday and the manipulation of the metals and such through the last week and a half that December sees a rebound.

    • "at this point it hasn't even leveled off never mind turning back up. "

      Quite right, and so while waiting for this (RSI(7) transition up through 30), we can focus on the RSI(14) and watch if it moves under 30, which would trigger a double RSI accumulation alert (RSI(7) and RSI(14) both under 30 simultaneously).

    • Okay thanks. RSI and other indicators weren't even this low when the shorts took us down below 6.00. It was starting to look real good on the rally, but then BAM, hammered back down as the metals take another hit for daring to try and breach 1700.00 and 32.00. Usually when oversold levels get to where we are now the bounce is often quite dramatic, I suppose that is a result of the triggers that you're talking about being set off. I mean I can look at the chart that you posted and watch to see as it moves back up through 30. But at this point it hasn't even leveled off never mind turning back up.

    • When it goes up a lot we see the results in SVM. Small moves does nothing. We have been seeing nothing but small moves which will have very little impact on our stock (SVM).

    • robo - My focus involves RSI(7) specifically, althought the others are not to be discounted, it's just that following RSI(7) has been working quite well for me.

      Anyway, we're in RSI(7)accumulation zone right now b/c RSI(7) already transitioned down through 30. This is where entry risk is low (even lower risk if RSI(14) is below 30 simultaneously, and almost only every few years might you see all three RSI(7/14/28) below 30 simultaneously (This is triple accumulation alert!)).

      So, the actual RSI(7) buy alert is given when RSI(7) crosses up through 30. This happens quickly, got to keep a close eye on it.

      Okay, I'll let you know when I see the RSI(7) transition back up through 30.

    • Well I'm not 100% sure what you mean by that. Where share price will be as we pass back up through 30? Sorry JM don't understand. RSI crossed down through 30 in the mid 8.00's Explain please. As I say I would love to understand this further. I just use a RSI (14) on a daily chart and know that under 30 is getting oversold and like I said 15 or below is very oversold, but as far as buy or sell triggers and such I haven't learned that and would love to understand.

    • robo - Tell me when you see RSI(7) cycle up through 30 (buy alert), if you don't mind humoring me. ;)

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