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Silvercorp Metals Inc. Message Board

  • oopsiomni50cents oopsiomni50cents Jan 15, 2013 10:45 PM Flag

    World’s largest gold dealers lower price target in 2013. Also, silver forecast.

    (from GlobeAndMail)

    Gold prices will reverse their recent lacklustre performance to rise as high as $1,913 a troy ounce this year, according to a closely watched survey of industry forecasts by the London Bullion Market Association.

    But for the first time since the beginning of gold’s bull market a decade ago, the forecast from 23 of the largest bullion-dealing banks and trading houses stops short of predicting a new high for the metal this year.

    The results of the annual survey highlight the confusion among traders and analysts after a year in which gold has struggled for momentum since falling from a nominal record high of $1,920.30 in 2011.

    The large majority of analysts remain bullish, arguing that the likely continuation of low interest rates and unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing should keep investment demand for gold strong.

    All but five of the forecasters predicted that gold would average more than $1,700 in 2013 – well above last year’s average of $1,669 as well as Friday’s spot price of $1,671.50. On average, the analysts predicted gold would trade between $1,529 and $1,913, with an average of $1,753.

    But the precious metal’s lacklustre reaction to supposedly bullish catalysts in recent months has forced some to question their assumptions. It has fallen 6.9 per cent from its most recent peak in October, despite a weaker dollar, the Federal Reserve’s extension of its quantitative easing programme, and the political dithering over the fiscal cliff.

    “Our conviction for continued structural strength in the gold market is being tested,” said Daniel Brebner, metals analyst at Deutsche Bank. “There are legitimate arguments being made with respect to an inflection in performance, reversing a more than 10-year trend of appreciation.”

    Collectively, the forecasting record of the analysts and traders surveyed by the LBMA is strong. They have correctly predicted the direction of average gold prices in each of the past 10 years – when the metal has risen every year – with an average error of about 5 per cent.

    Traditionally, they have been overcautious in their predictions for price increases, although last year they were over-optimistic, forecasting that prices would hit $2,055. In fact, last year’s high was $1,795.

    Demand from India and China, the two largest consumers of physical gold, was weaker than expected last year as growth slowed, weighing on the bullion market.

    James Steel, precious metals strategist at HSBC, said: “Indian consumption is likely to recover based on historical consumption patterns. Furthermore, we anticipate strong Chinese import demand.”

    The analysts also forecast gains for the other precious metals. They said silver would average $33.21 a troy ounce this year, up 6.6 per cent from last year, but that palladium would enjoy the strongest rally – rising 15.5 per cent to average $744 a troy ounce.

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    • when an analysts predicts gold to rise as high as $1913 ,like they know, and maybe it goes to $2600 they are correct,it did rise as high as $1913,alot of bull in the way they talk to make them sound correct year after year

    • china bought record 800 tons of gold in 2012. they bought a record 91 tons of gold in dec 2012 alone. they bought more gold in 2012 than japan owns alltogether. I guess china isn't lowering their target of ownership. look where the forcast is comming from, London, i think there is an agenda there.

    • so you are posting this here instead of slv and gld and gdxj or gdx is because?
      oh forgot all the other miners.

      and it is because?
      oh boy you keep forgetting something metal stackers dont care about analysts forcasts.

      the ones that care are short term speculators.
      99% of real metal stackers are ones that are long term.

      10 years down the road 20 years down the road 30 years down the road etc.
      what will the purchasing power be not exactly the nominal value.

      • 1 Reply to ryugo82
      • "so you are posting this here instead of slv and gld and gdxj or gdx is because?"

        Why? Let's see. To stir your ire??? Nah. Well, maybe. But mainly to gauge the board's complacency. And your reaction is a perfect example--"metal stackers don't care." That's great! Not caring can be the recipe for disaster. But who cares! Surely not the SVMers holding from $7, $10 and $14, for "10 years down the road 20 years down the road 30 years down the road etc." those carefree stackers may proudly announce their trade's closing--a sale for breakeven.

        P.S. Be certain you raise THE same roaring objections the minute someone posts copy of some metals guru who authors a Bullish column, or else I'll smash ya! (-;

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