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Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) Message Board

  • kklausbeckerman kklausbeckerman Nov 24, 2012 4:38 PM Flag

    Levadex @ 400M projected

    Shares of Mapp do not Currently Reflect Potential

    According to Map's filings and investor presentation (pdf), there were $1.6 billion in triptan prescriptions written in 2010 and roughly 29 million migraine prescriptions issued. Levadex has the potential to be a first-line therapy, at roughly $40/dose, 25% market share would equate to roughly $400 million in revenue . Allergan trades at roughly 5x revenue and the industry average is over 3.5x revenue. If MAPP can achieve revenue of close to $200 million on its share of revenue, its market cap at a market benchmark 4x revenue, would be approximately $800 million or close to $30/share, more than 100% higher than today's quote of $14. Given the drug's performance in trials, the presence of a top level partner in AGN and the significant market opportunity I believe MAPP presents an outstanding risk/reward profile at today's prices.

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