Looking forward six months (state reasons/logic if you wish)
how would you rate the investment potential of celsion shares?
there is a reason that biorunup owns a bunch of this stock.
yes, a lot of people wait until 6 or 3 months before the final readout to get in. But that's why, quite predictably, if you get in before THAT, you will make money even if all you do is sell into the 'late-comer' runup.
the traders can go ahead and run along for a year if they think they have a good chance of making %50-%100 on their trades in that time frame. Because that will be the additional cost of getting in a year from now. (Obviously, much greater if it is halted for efficacy.)
Well, if Mr T's timelines in his latest CEO letter hold true to his historical ability to meet timelines then I woefully expect that I will be forced to sell my very long term holdings under $4 and quite likely under $3 because I simply can no longer afford to keep them. Even if I were to sell my shares at 500% of my average shareprice, I will have lost more than that in opportunity costs.
The only real timeline Mr T hasn't been inaccurate at is when they announce the need to raise cash through dilution.
first off Mojo, lay off the caps, you lose respect doing thaat! But I rate the stock very good if you aren't looking to flip it in a couple of days. I have no problem with day-traders, hell done it myself(not with this stock) but anyone that thinks pumping or bashing on a yahoo MB will influence stock price is lacking in the brains department. Not to say that it won't scare away new retail investors, but my gosh does anyone think professional traders spend all day on a MB? I digress, back to CLSN, been in since it was CLN and have quadrip, quintuple.. sextuple.. bought a heck of a lot more in the last 9 months in anticipation of it eventual being approved and providing money to investors and answers for cancer victims. Won't happen next week, but we are getting much closer.. I can wait.
I'd have to rate the potential as extremely favorable, but thats what potential is, stored greatness whether it comes out or not is to be determined. If it's halted then its off the charts, 6 months has potential for partners, if we get a partner in the next 6 months you can pretty much lock up Thermodox as bieng approved. If we continue to 380 thats fine as well. I think the more they enroll right now will also speed up the 380 pfs.
Lots of good stuff to look forward too.
I would say the "potential" is extremely favorable. It is hard to go wrong delivering proven drug directly to tumor site in an improved manner. I think the company will make some serious money if they have the intellectual rights to keep the process. The next six months depends upon interim results and partnerships. I am not a believer in mathematical odatian crosses as they may or may not apply to a news driven biotech stock. I do believe there will be a run-up as we get closer to results and that there is a real possibility that it could hold/continue if a partnership closely follows. I do respect some of the posters here and the DD that I have observed that they are capable. I personally have some dry powder that I will use to add to my position as we get closer to the end of the "drift" and move into "anticipation" phase.
on a six month time scale
I put it at
0 % chance of significant increase
catalyst usually cause increase
CEO said very unlikely that interim review would result in halt and approval
and CEO hints best case scenario review of 380 events in a year
++++ mentioning that historically when discussing enrollment this company was off essentially by two years.
I see no significant possible catalyst for one year minimum per CEO statements at Rodman Renshaw conference.
Unless you consider starting the phase II trial a catalyst, but I think that a pop for a day nothing less nothing more,
then people realize they have to pay for it and phase II tests cost money.
thats my guess, welcome to hear yours.
I really don't have a good answer but am trying to understand the
way others on the Board view the next 6 months. I think that we may
have reached a point where the answer to my question lies more in
the hands of the FDA than the hands of Celsion.