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Celsion Corp. Message Board

  • smilee142003 smilee142003 Oct 25, 2012 8:45 AM Flag

    Thoughts on high short interest?

    Just wanted to ask the question as to lack of enthusiasm for CLSN this late in the game and so close to major catalyst, as evidenced by two factors- low market cap (read philkobi's bear piece on magicsia's site), and high short interest. Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • gettin ready to run this up a couple bucks HIGHER,,,jmo,gallen

    • For high short interest, check out sppi.

    • It's doubtful these are all naked shorts. More likely it is hedged by buying out of the money calls to reduce risk. Don't read too much into the short %.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • I think one of the biggest reasons for increasing short interest is the lack of clarity regarding the estimated release of Phase III top line results. We have heard management say we will have data by the end of 2012 or shortly thereafter on numerous occasions. But what does that mean?

      Does it mean that the trials will presumably have met the 380 PFS threshold and data will be locked down and ready for analysis before the end of the year? If that is the case then we will not have topline results until March. If shorts think that is the case they have another 5 months to play with the stock.

      Or does it mean that we already have data and it is currently being analyzed and top line results will be released by the end of 2012 or shortly thereafter. If that is the case then shorts only have a couple of months to play with the pps.

      According to the note on the clinical trials website, it says that December 2012 is the estimated date for Phase III data collection. This leads me to believe that data will not be locked down until the end of 2012 and then an 8-12 week analysis of the data will begin with top line data released in March or so.

      Asking management at the next CC whether or not data is expected by the end of the year allows management to give an ambiguous answer. Someone should ask if they expect top line Phase III results to be released before the end of 2012. If that question can be answered in the affirmative the pps will not continue to drift down. JMHO.

    • In the last 6 months, CLSN climbed from the low 2's into the 5's. The smart shorts are shorting that rise.
      It will be a binary event when CLSN reports, i.e. pps doubles or falls by 50%. Smart shorts should be exiting position before Dec to avoid risk.
      I think the two directors exercising their options over the past two months shows confidence in the final results but don't bet the house.
      Wall Street doesn't care about CLSN as it uses old chemo. I don't think Wall Street appreciates the new delivery system that is thermodox. The down side risk is: were the trial doctors able to infuse the patient and then heat the tumors in time for thermodox to be effective? Time will tell.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Short interest per E-Trade, to name a few
      DNDN - 31%
      MNKD - 19.53%
      ZIOP - 17.5%
      VVUS - 16.91%
      THLD - 14.98%
      DCTH - 12.64%
      ARNA - 26.16%

      • 3 Replies to mnr448
      • Shorts employ a risky tactic but then again the market is risky. For clarification:

        Short selling is a trading technique that lets a trader profit from a stock price decline. If a trader believes that a stock will decline, he borrows shares of that stock from his broker, sells them, keeps the proceeds, buys the shares back at a lower price and returns them to the broker. His profit is the difference between the amount he gets when he sells the shares and the amount that he pays to buy them back. The key to the transaction is the trader's ability to borrow shares to sell short.

        Right now according to Ameritrade, CLSN has 16.08% of it's 33.2 million shares or 5.34 million shares shorted. From what I've noticed during the down trend over the last few weeks is that there were a boatload of 100 share transactions selling at lower and lower prices. Why would'nt a short seller sell a 1,000 shares in 100 share trades at lower and lower prices so he could buy another 1,000 from a weak hand at an even lower price to replace the shres he's borrowed.

        JMHO FWTFIW

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • hft_stairstep_fraud hft_stairstep_fraud Oct 25, 2012 10:34 AM Flag

        It all gets back to GAME THEORY; ILLUSION. In the case of binary event stocks, there is usually a TON of BOXED hedging going on heading into the event. This creates the appearance of a high short interest without that actually being the case. Often it serves to LOCK SHARES OUT OF THE FLOAT. Once a positive event or buyout takes place, the shares become extremely scarce forcing the stock higher as the short side is covered. As long as the hedger has a larger size in their long position than the short - the very action of covering the hedged portion drives the long position ever higher. Have you ever seen a small biotech go up 10 or 20 points in a day? Who do you think is buying into that kind of advance? It's the hedgers - who by covering are gaining and losing nothing on the boxed portion of their trade while their core long position surges ever higher.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Par for the course for late-stage bios is certainly one acceptable (for the bulls) answer. Though
        I got to wondering when ACAD's short interest just fell from over 5m shares to 1.7m...

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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