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Celsion Corp. Message Board

  • edbern Dec 25, 2012 9:38 AM Flag

    Seeking Alpha:CLSN Heat Study Far From Certain Outcome Pt 2 or How to Lie with Statistics.

    I took a statistics course in college in the 70's that was called "How to Lie with Statistics" this article written by Biotech Sage is a good example of the use of a structured argument used to demonstrate how to use statistics to prove any point you want. At least Biotech Sage admits at the beginning that he is short the stock. I'm sure he is one of the smarter shorts using calls to limit his exposure. This is at least a short who uses facts to advance his case even if they are not always used in the proper context. It's funny that he waited till we had the run up yesterday to release the second part. He is hoping to cool the run up down and get the shorts back into action for the balance of the week. While nothing is assured in biotech investing the the results of the Phase III seems to be heavily on the longs side of the argument. I'm with management on this one, all in, and waiting for the results. Hope your holidays are everything you expect and more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • He sure scared me a bit. I wish the company would publish a rebuttal. I do understand anyone good in numbers, statistics and writing could make the story go in their favor. Still believe because of insider buying so late into the game!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to antigalu
      • Antig his article is pure rubbish, first off he simple cant understand the dose response table, that should tell you something. Second off he misinterprets or misrepresents the amount of DOX that is delivered local to the tumor!!! It's not systemic chemo, it's localized and concentrated. Third he doesn't seem to understand the synergistic effect heat has on DOX and the tumor. Fourth we're not comparing ourselfs to tace or anything but RFA, he spends an inordinate amount of time on other procedures. Lastly and I could go on and on is all of the trials that so use chemo involve DOX!!!
        Ok lastly again DOX has shown little to moderate efficacy involving free DOX, the reason is simple that the dose of DOX is not nearly high enough to have an affect in liver tumors that show mild resistant traits to chemo. The whole point of chemo is to deliver it in high enough concentrations. Clearly if thermodox delivers a high enough dose directly to the site then tdox will work!! If it doesn't then it won't lol

      • edbern Dec 25, 2012 1:24 PM Flag

        Antigalu, I've seen you around the board for quite some time. There is never a sure thing but my due diligence (been a CLSN investor since 2002) tells me the risk / reward on this certainly seems to point to a successful phase III. I currently broke one of my investing rules on % of my money in anyone one stock. If this does fail, this one will hurt, but not kill me. Articles like this are on every message board for every industry. You need to have faith in your own ability to analyze the information available from the company and the managements ability to deliver what they have promised up to this point. The strongest indications of managements thinking is their buying of the stock and promise not to raise money till results are released. Another was their ability to get a loan from a concern that will not be repaid if the phase III fails.They could easily raise money at $8 per share now if they wanted but have not. If I was managing a concern where I had doubts about the results I'd be raising money now while it was available.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I doubt he's short. He's not an idiot. He and/or his "friends" are trying to buy more shares without running the price up. Create a sell off to buy.

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