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Celsion Corp. Message Board

  • daviscupper daviscupper Jan 2, 2013 10:16 AM Flag

    Focus on what is critical...

    The primary endpoint of the trial is the PFS rate of the control group vs the PFS rate of the treatment group.

    If we know any four of the following five we can determine the fifth and hence we will know the PFS rate of both control and the treatment group. The five are: Total PFS events, number of control patients and time in trial, number of treatment patients and time in trial, the PFS rate of the control group and the PFS rate of the treatment group.

    1. We know there has been 380 PFS events near November 1st.

    2. We know the number of control patients enrolled (350), dates of enrollment and the time they have been in trial.

    3. We know the number of treatment patients enrolled (350), dates of enrollment and the time these patients have been in the trial.

    4. We have historical evidence of RFA patients with lesions in the 3-7cm range. These patients are very sick and have been profiled and chosen because of their history of eventing very quickly. Mounting evidence supports the notion that these patients have a median 12 month PFS rate.

    5. Hence, the PFS rate of the treatment group can be determined with a great deal of accuracy. If you do the math the PFS rate of the treatment group comes in around 56 median months.

    These are remarkable results on the borderline of being a cure.

    Michael Tardugno in his last two conference calls has used the words "potential cure" to describe RFA + ThermoDox.

    The officers of the company have only purchased shares, never sold shares.

    The officers have refused to raise funds by diluting shares until after results, even knowing that failed results will bankrupt the company and financially destroy Celsion and its employees.

    Why is management so confident?

    They have a similar model to mine. They have predicted for over 18 months the 380th event would occur just before the end of 2012 and it has. They know the results are going to be stellar and they have bet the farm.

    Good luck longs. Cheers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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