Although today feels more like a funeral I did make a promise to deliver wine to the winners. There are five categories of winners. Four for the main contest: DATE, PFS Results, HOD and Grand Prize. And one for the mini-contest: HOD.
A review of the contest rules below reveals that there is no Grand Prize winner because one individual did not win all three categories in the main contest.
Also per the rules the mini-contest estimate of the HOD price had to be within $2.00 of the actual price to be declared a winner. The actual high of the day price was $1.72 in normal trading hours. The lowest estimate for the HOD price in the mini-contest was $4.50 so there was also no winner in the mini-contest.
However, there are three winners in the Main contest and each of the winners will receive a coveted 2007 Stagg's Leap Artemis cabernet sauvignon bottle of wine. The winners need to respond to this post with an address I can mail the bottles to. Without further a do the winners are:
DATE winner: Seatown1974
There were three people that chose today's date, 1/31/2013, but the person with closest HOD price estimate was Seatown's 10.50 share price. Congratulations.
HOD share price winner: Adam Magliari
His HOD estimate of $8.26 per share was the lowest of the main contestants and therefore closest to the actual $1.72 share price. Congratulations.
PFS Results winner: sdtrond
This was a bit difficult to determine. Remember, the first criteria for determining the winner in the PFS results category was the closest estimate of the control PFS rate. I had to make an executive decision here. Michael Tardugno did not specifically announce a control PFS rate but he did give an estimate. If you recall during the CC he said the control group performed 20 percent better than expected. Then pushed he answered 20 percent better than 12. Therefore: 12 x 1.20 = 14.40 PFS for control.
There were many estimates for 14 or 15 PFS rates, but one individual, sdtrond, picked 14.20 for the Control PFS rate. Since we are unlikely to know the actual PFS rate for control I will use my executive authority to declare sdtrond's pick of 14.2 to be the best estimate of the implicit actual control PFS rate of 14.40. Congratulations to trond.
Congratulations to all the winners. The bottles are ready to mailed out. I need you to reply to this post with an address. Cheers.
I wish today's events ended on a happier note. My condolences to all longs. It is a very sad day.
Davis, appreciate the contest and the spirit it was run under. As you say, I would rather we had a different reason to celebrate.
I do not really want to post my address here. Could you send me an email at sdtrond (at yahoo)?
Main Contest rules:
1. One bottle will go to the person who picks the correct release date of the Heat trial, Phase III results. I suspect there will be multiple correct answers here. So the winner will be decided by whomever also comes closest to picking the high of the day share price on the day the results are released. Note. If results are released in AH, the high of AH trading will apply.
2. A bottle will also be awarded to the person who picks the most accurate primary endpoint PFS comparison between the control and treatment group. Winner will be chosen by the following criteria. The most accurate prediction of PFS control. If more than one correct answer is submitted the next criteria will be whomever is closest to the treatment group PFS. If there are still ties, the tie will be broken by whomever picks closest to the high of the day share price on the day the results are released. Again, if results are released in AH, the high in AH will apply.
3. The final bottle will be awarded to the person who is closest to picking the high of the day share price on the day the Phase III results are released. If results are released in AH, the high in AH applies.
4. Finally, if one person is the winner in all the above three categories they will also receive the famous and extremely rare rum casked 14 year Bushmill whisky that comes in a silk-lined wooden case with brass locking clasps.
Final rulings will be made by daviscupper. I will mail out all wines and whisky immediately after results are released. Cheers.
All those that got their estimates in after 4:10 PM will not be participating in the main contest; however, there will be a mini-contest for you. The person who comes closest to the high of the day share price on the day Phase III results are released will receive a Napa Valley cabernet sauvignon wine. A bottle of Robert Mondavi's 2007 cabernet. However, there is an additional caveat. You must also be within $2.00 of the actual high share price to win a bottle. It is tougher, I know, but there are fewer of you and you also did not follow the rules. Good luck.
"Congratulations to all the winners. The bottles are ready to mailed out. I need you to reply to this post with an address. Cheers."
who in their right mind would post their address on a yahoo message board?