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Celsion Corp. Message Board

  • canstic1 canstic1 Feb 28, 2013 2:35 PM Flag

    Seeking Alpha on Celsison (CLSN) today, could be ten-bagger

    Role : Hyper Speculative

    Equity : Celsion (CLSN)

    Percentage of Portfolio : 2%

    Celsion has certainly been something else over the last month. The stock has taken the Nestea plunge from over $9 to recently breaking under $1, all spurred by the fact that their Phase III trial data for their drug ThermoDox for liver cancer turned out to be the Hindenberg of bio-tech Phase III results.

    I wrote about Celsion earlier this year :

    Celsion had released a press release this morning before its planned conference call indicating that "Celsion has determined, after conferring with its independent Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) that the HEAT Study did not meet the goal of demonstrating persuasive evidence of clinical effectiveness that could form the basis for regulatory approval in the population chosen for study. The HEAT Study was designed to show a 33% improvement in PFS with 80% power and a p-value = 0.05."

    Following this press release, CEO Michael Tardugno, sounding demoralized and melancholy, took to a conference call with his right hand man, VP of Corporate Strategy and Investor Relations Jeff Church. Investors like myself, eager to get more information on how close ThermoDox came to performing well, tuned in.

    What we got was nothing short of an absolute funeral. The tone of the call was meek and reserved at best, with analysts offering apologies to Celsion executives over the results, with one analyst even offering his "condolences." We also heard from a remorseful and humbled-sounding CEO, who, to his credit, manned up and took the helm of his company's ship on the conference call in the midst of the bad news. Credit is due there.

    Celsion's entire pipeline is based on their liposomal delivery of drugs, a la the way the active ingredients were delivered for liver cancer. So, why bother with a company whose pipeline is apparently screwed to the nth degree and is diluting their stock akin to someone dumping half a can of Diet Coke into the Pacific Ocean?

    Here's a couple reasons:

    Celsion is absolutely dirt cheap, trading at 90% off its highs.

    ThermoDox's next trial will be for breast cancer, where they've shown in prelimiary trials to have the most success (even moreso than they did in prelims for liver cancer). If their reason for Phase III failure has to do only with the location of the cancerous tissue and not the drug or process delivery, Celsion still has a chance to be a grand slam.

    Celsion has a strong balance sheet heading into 2013 and recently just closed another round of financing. The company, although diluting its stock, is not going bankrupt.

    This is why its my hyper-speculative choice. There is potential ten bagger results just from the stock if the company can turn things around and find some success with ThermoDox or by changing their corporate strategy altogether. With options, there's even more upside. Either way, there is also eventual risk of total loss.

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    • I'll take a 3-bagger with fries.

    • so many on ignore seeking apha is a scammer an d I am a holder...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The drug delivery platform was proven to work, and they can deliver many diferrent drugs for many diferrent diseases, not just cancer....CLSN has 51 million dollars in cash to fine tune it to the right drug/disease.....this is a very VALUABLE drug delivery platform...

    • The KEY points, as I have been saying for the past few days are these:

      ThermoDox's next trial will be for breast cancer, where they've shown in prelimiary trials to have the most success (even moreso than they did in prelims for liver cancer). If their reason for Phase III failure has to do only with the location of the cancerous tissue and not the drug or process delivery, Celsion still has a chance to be a grand slam.

      Celsion has a strong balance sheet heading into 2013 and recently just closed another round of financing.

      The company, although diluting its stock, is not going bankrupt.

      ......so why would anyone be short under $1 ?????????????

 
CLSN
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