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China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. Message Board

  • PMNPT PMNPT Jul 16, 1998 4:08 PM Flag

    I told you!

    My pick: ALU and TALK, both began to fly,
    especially ALU. I put about 60% of my money on TALK, but I
    didn't buy more on ALU. CBS is pumping ALU now!! I lost
    an opportunity to get 100% profit from ALU.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Have you looked at EMLX? They are up 33% today. Monday could be big spike.

    • What else can I say, if CEA bulls do not want to
      hear any bad news? Since all China plays are close to
      record low, I don't want to post any bad news to scare
      CEA "investors" out even though I heard these news 2
      weeks ago. The bank manager my wife talked to is our
      high school classmate. It's a 4th largest bank in a
      small city (>100K though) next to Canton. He said
      that 30% of the bank loans are bad ones--the bank has
      no hope to recover them. Only new depositors' money
      has kept the banks alive. If 30% of small depositors
      want their money back, China banks will go to hell. My
      wife's aunt could not get her 10K RMB withdrew the same
      day--it happended more than 1 time!

      Canton needs
      40 billion RMB this yr for large projects (Zhu's big
      deal), and Canton cannot locate 1/4 of these funding.
      These projects include the new airport for
      Canton.

      Only the stock market can tell if I'm telling the
      truth. CEA and ZNH will see new low by Aug 15; and CEA
      has no chance to stay above 9; and ZNH not above 8.


      Japan's new PM might be the last hope to the next
      rebound. BTW I do not short ADRs since they're too low,
      and no volume. Any news would worth 50 cents jump,
      and I'll play the rebound game if China plays hit new
      low with good volume.

      • 3 Replies to allenchen98
      • Bad bank loans are not news. They have been there
        for many years and have been kept piling up. The key
        is confidence. Without confidence, every bank in the
        world will go bankrupt, even US banks. China is
        obviously experiencing difficulties, and one way to
        overcome these difficulties is to further privatization,
        which means these public traded blue chips will
        dominate the market. I am still long term bullish. Again,
        I have small position in these ADRs which lost
        about 30% percent of its value, but I have never really
        worried about them. What would you say about air travel
        market in next five years? Will the market grow or
        shrink?

        And why do bad bank loans affect airlines
        more than other companies?

      • from Guangchou, all I was told was 'no money to
        go around', too much bad debts. Chinese are thinking
        about diluting whatever amont of shares of stocks if
        they can put their hand on cash. However, with such a
        big bad debt 'black whole', they are putting the good
        money after the bad. I was talking with some major
        telecommunication companies there about their previous orders,
        everyone of them said they had delay or cancel. The bank
        refused to open L/C. Some say some banks can not pay
        interest any more, advise their customer not to deposit
        new funds. The question is what can be the solution,
        not mention about how they can complete the solution.

      • I remind you again: TALK and ALU. Read the
        CBEmarketwatch paper on ALU(today), I wanted to buy more, but my
        computer is so slow that I missed this
        opportunity.

        For TALK, tomorrow it will be above 19. There are 15
        million shorters, they are very anxious to cover.

 
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