Yep gotcha...slum! Keep an eye out for Biocryst (BCRX) as well. Like the nuc they have plus other plays, they seem to be slowly rising under the radar..
Just got email from ACHN more presentations at the Cowen conferance in March...
Good luck to all
Agree with your points since your points agree with mine, except you missed the one on GILD's other nuc, PSI-938, that got nuked. I wasn't referring to 7977.
>Remember that one of VRUS/GILD nuc trial already had to be stopped bec of toxicity and IdIX was put on hold at one pt for the same reason. Nice try. VRUS's 7977 didn't cause this toxicity.
I've got no problem at all with nucs as I expect some of them to work really well. Probably much better if combined with PIs. The hold on IDIX made me hesitate on starting a position. I might still buy some IDIX if it stays independent for awhile and I have some loose change.
Hey Slum & Sam.... I agree with your input... If you listen to last conferance call...CEO states "ACH-1625 acts like NO-OTHER protease inhibitor"... 100%cEVR on multiple genotypes 1 & 1A plus++,Very Safe!"so far", FDA-Fast track..."Best in Class Protease inhibitor."
They are jumping ahead...skipping if you will two of their other drug candidates and pushing ACH-3201 NS5A "which early on appears stellar" They are going to combo the two together and test later this year as an all oral combo...
"If" Achillion decides to partner with another company all well and good..." It appears to me they are going for a "knockout" combo on their own and already have one of the pieces to the puzzle "ACH-1625" in house!
Take over 2-3 Billion now sure... @26/share Right now..
Combo-works...1/4-1/3 of the HepC market value...$$$worth?
Long and strong either way...
>nucs were fetching a high price bec of the belief that it is the silver bullet. Latest data from Gilead already disproved that.
In the latest data from GILD, only the null-responders (Those who took a prior ifn therapy and failed) had a relapse. The Genotype-1 patients who took an all-oral GILD7977+Ribavarin (no interferon) have not yet relapsed.
(The company put out a PR for null-responders who relapsed but didn't mention relapse in treatment-naive GT1 patients).
i.e, GILD's nuc + Ribavarin is good enough for Genotype 2 & 3 patients as well as Genotype 1 patients who are treatment naive.
>Remember that one of VRUS/GILD nuc trial already had to be stopped bec of toxicity and IdIX was put on hold at one pt for the same reason.
Nice try. VRUS's 7977 didn't cause this toxicity. IDIX's liver toxicity was observed when IDX184 was combined with another drug. The partial hold on IDX184 was lifted because latest studies have shown that IDX184 does not cause liver toxicity.
>1625, with ifn and riba, already beats vrtx and merck's in terms of efficacy and safety.
Interferon therapy has lots of painful side effects and the reason for paying high premium to nucs is that they would serve as the backbone of an all oral therapy(without interferon).
>With more studies later this year and next, if ACHN can show that a combo/s of their drugs plus riba, is as good, if not better than nuc combos, 11B is a low takeout price. RThere are no safety signals yet with 1625.
We need the results from those studies before jumping to conclusions.
1625 is definitely a potent protease inhibitor and could definitely be a part of an all-oral combination therapy. While your $11 Billion buyout scenario is at least a year away, if it gets bought out in the near term, the price is more likely to be in the $1.5 to $3 billion range.