Stock has been lower but this could encourage a buyout
I am still positive on the stock as larger pharma could be very interested in Achillion as it has multiple Hep C assets in the works. Larger companies could/would do a buyout both to acquire the assets and also prevent competition. BMS appears to have recovered some from its poor purchase of Inhibitex and now partnered with Vertex, in addition to its prior partnerships. Idenix stock is staying prevent strong recently in spite of any Hep C products being many years out. Seems to me that BMS or Gilead could still take out Achillion and a lower stock price would encourage that. Point being a good time to make an offer and buy. Achillion's total price (market cap plus premium) is still very cheap and any buyer could end up with one or more Hep C products that are top of the line and better than some of the competition. Caution to those selling as you might miss out.
Breeze: A target company with a low stock price very rarely prompts a buyout... a suitor wants to buy a successful product or service which can be leveraged to produce outstanding returns... for example, nobody wanted Pharmasset at 4.00 but they wanted it for over 100.00... people are whining about the company not supporting the stock price... what is mgmt supposed to say???... again, this is a developmental biotech with no products on the market...I look for mgmt to support the stock price by delivering successful trial results, raise money to support those trials and have a savvy business/marketing plan when drug approval is finalized... this could go to 5.00 and it still will remain unattractive... trial results will ultimately do all the talking...
Any buyer is going to buy at what such buyer feels is the right time. Certainly price plays a factor as well as where the company stands as far as the pipeline. As to Pharmasset, my understanding is there was a bidding war at the time too so that would have inflated the final price. Certainly, large companies with vested interest in the Hep C race like Gilead, BMS and Abbott are not only fostering their own pipelines but also keeping abreast of their competition. Certainly, Achillion has good value in its pipeline and as to market cap its market cap is about the same as Idenix yet Idenix pipeline is YEARS out. Should Idenix be successful and so far Idenix has not as two of its drugs died out.
There are multiple types of Hep C and it will take multiple drugs to cure all those types for people around the world.
Achillion's cost of operations is $50M a year. Vertex sells over $800M a year of its Hep C FDA approved drug. Certainly, the science is there for Achillion's products, they will come to market and it won't take much in sales to generate profits to shareholders. That is if a buyout does not come first and I suspect it will.
PS - I agree that companies need to keep relevant news out there about progress so the stock price stays in line with the value of the company.