A few comparisons...
HCBK"s IPO was at the minimum...52.9 million
PFS, if it goes to maximum, will be 51.8
HCBK pro forma equity/share was $12.03
PFS looks like 13.84
HCBK P/E was 10.4
PFS is a rather whopping 18.9
HCBK % equity/share was 83.1
PFS is 74.6%
HCBK return on assets was 1.24
PFS is .83
HCBK return on average equity was 10.62
PFS is 8.29
The HCBK management and directors bought $6,800,000 of shares ($10/sh) in their IPO. PFS management/directors are buying $4,837,500.
The 23 PFS officers are buying an average of 21,033 shares each while HCBK's 16 officers/directors bought 42,500 each.
The investment bankers have nothing to do with it! It's only based on the appraised value and the high prices of publicly traded thrifts drives that! The biggest problem will be all the folks sending in their checks, without them it could be at the minimum. It's strictly supply and demand!
I sent in 100k with a 5k deposit and will be lucky if I get 1,500 shares...
Reality check time!
I talked to two of the investment banker types that track these deals:
* The deal will be mega oversubscribed and should pop 30%- because of its size, they compare it to icbc
You won't get jack squat for stock anyway, may take $6 of deposit for $1 dollar of stock purchase.
* I have a feeling most of you talking cold feet are worried becasue you don't have a deposit to speak of and are thinking of buying after it trades, and if true, I understand your worry.
* You are right that we are in the late stages of a rally for thrifts.
I haven'r really followed hcbk since I foolishly passed on its ipo back in ?99 when thrifts were in the doghouse but I'm impressed that they did at least one 2 for 1 split this past summer and the stock is at least $37 split adjusted! I think a big part besides the fact it operates well is the great market share in a very disirable market area. I expect Provident to get some of the same respect!
Corvette, IMO, too much reliance on timing. The one thing I thought everyone has learned about these conversions is trying to time entry and exit points is futile. Just get in and enjoy the ride. More will be lost trying to figure out when and where one can optimize that last dollar or two then just getting in at IPO and worrying about other more pressing matters.
I don't get your handwringing Corvette. Both CFFN and SFFS have virtually tripled in 3 1/2 to 4 years. If anyone is going to worry over short term noise, keep your money in a CD and stop kvetching!!