here's why: While tangible book value is $13.50, it's goind down, not up in my view. Any repurchases will be dilutive to book value. Second, any purchases of deposits, branches, or banks will be very dilutive to book value. Hence, you are left with an Earnings play. Well, why is estiamted 2003 earnings of 67 cents, and 2004 earnings of 85 cents worth more than HCBK that's making $1 in 2002, $1.15 in 2003, etc. Also, HCBK has upside based on the second step (not so for PFS). To justify even a $15 price, PFS needs TTM earnings of 1.00, and FTM earnings of, say, $1.15 -- this will not happen for a while. Bottom line, I may buy some soon in the $15 range or, hopefully, in upper 14's as a longer term (3-4) holding. But this aint no screaming bargain at this price.
'they' say dont make a decision based on taxes. im takin exception.
PFS demonstrates that the current market for small banks says price-to-book is KING over PE. i thought this would trade on a blended valuation parameters. wrong. its p/book.
HOLD: i figure w fed,state taxes taking out almost 50% for short term gain stock has to below $13.50 before it becomes a bad decision to hold and not sell now.
earnings? $0.63 this year ahead book? $14 one year out should be low
sell now? $15.65 28% return after tax
sell 1 year out $14 33% return after tax
about 5% performance gain by holding nothing to sneeze at. im holding.
'assUME' they can do 0.63, the div/cap gains laws dont change, 1+% dividend. and stock doesnt trade worse than 1x book.
next year if PFS $13.50 or better the hold worked. if PFS $15.65 45% after tax
17% is huge in this upcoming tape!
I don't understand the "bite me" remark. Neil, is this one of your Yahoo aliases?
Post something about HCBK and people will respond. Nothing is going on with HCBK. Be thankful that HCBK is a rock.
I've got a question. If a bank does a 2nd step, in general what is required to participate? Would a depositor's participation in the ipo qualify them for participation in the 2nd step or would you still have to have a current account with the bank to qualify? I was going to move my small seed account to another potential ipo canditate, but if this precludes me from participating in a 2nd step, I won't.
Thanks in advance for any advise and good luck to all.
"I paid cash but I saw him enter it into his log book."
Log Book? Which Log Book?
Log Book #1 or;
Log Book #2 ??
Btw, when the hell does PFS get it's own message board?
You guys are ruining this one with PFS chatter.
Maybe you ought to start you're own "S&L Thrift IPO" (or such) board and take it over there.
Do us HCBK guys a break