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Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Message Board

  • thriftyman96 thriftyman96 Jan 16, 2003 2:31 PM Flag

    PFS is Not Worth More than $145.50 toda

    here's why: While tangible book value is $13.50, it's goind down, not up in my view. Any repurchases will be dilutive to book value. Second, any purchases of deposits, branches, or banks will be very dilutive to book value. Hence, you are left with an Earnings play. Well, why is estiamted 2003 earnings of 67 cents, and 2004 earnings of 85 cents worth more than HCBK that's making $1 in 2002, $1.15 in 2003, etc. Also, HCBK has upside based on the second step (not so for PFS). To justify even a $15 price, PFS needs TTM earnings of 1.00, and FTM earnings of, say, $1.15 -- this will not happen for a while. Bottom line, I may buy some soon in the $15 range or, hopefully, in upper 14's as a longer term (3-4) holding. But this aint no screaming bargain at this price.

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