I get a newsletter on bank stocks and the fellas there have been negative on banks for a while. Well, my stocks were going up so I figured, "sour grapes." They keep talking about how they are putting in limit orders for $9.25 for all the deals that are IPO's and how CFFN, Carver, and others all broke and stayed under the IPO price.
Then new deals come out for Slavie, Roebling, Georgetown, and Bay Vanugard (came out last week I think) all selling for under $10.00.
Now I'm not so sure I should be laughing at them. No way was I going to order the original amount of 10,000 on Kearny, but now I'm having doubts about ordering even 2,000.
Anyone else thinking of passing entirely and buying cheaper in the aftermarket ?
Is this the post your talking about, it's there from 1/18.
This stock has done nothing for the 12-month period Jan 1 to December 31, 2004. It closed at approx $19 on December 31 of 2003 and again in 2004, give or take a few pennies.
As a stockholder, I am hoping that something will kick start this stock. It would be nice if the management increases the dividend so stockholders get a decent return from their holdings.
Two things re PFS
1. As you know, PFS board is dead since Oct �04. The other day I tried to post a message, but the message did not show up. So I thought that I had made a mistake. I then tried to post the same exact message again. I got a message telling me that I had already posted that message and that it would appear in a little bit. I looked it up in a little bit, and again the next day and the next day. The message did not appear. So it seems that Yahoo has effectively closed the PFS board for any new messages. Perhaps, due to all the shenanigans that went on there.
2. PFS came out with earnings, not great but they have made progress. They announced a stock buyback and also a tiny increase in dividend. No, I do not hold 52000 shares but you do. That should be a little cheer for you.
If -- and I say IF -- it opened up 20%, no way it drops below $10.00 first few days. If it's going to open under $10.00, then it's flat or up a tiny amount, or it opens under $10.00.
What makes you think it goes up 20% if every single bank deal that has come out in the last month has opened DOWN and broke $10.00? I hope you're right but what makes this differnt?
Now you got it....bulllseye!!
That said, I'll order a token amount in Kearny, after all, if I ordered token amounts on all these other MHC's, may as well do it locally, too. But I'm not buying what I normally might, not with $9 prices staring me in the face on 4 of my last 5 purchases.
Actually, demand has been light, way below what they expected. Do you think that the bank is going to tell you that?
If you know someone at Sandler, ask them. They'll tell you it's nothing like PFS or NABC. Interest is dead from locals and pros.
And I don't have to tell you why.
At best this a 20+ %, which I will take! ...but get rid of your shares fast. The valuation on this deal if this goes at the maximum, a revised maximum I might add. This will probably drop below $10 shortly after the IPO. Kearny is no Hudson City! Hudson came out at a lower vaulation,the deal went to a community offering, when interest rates were still falling, and Hudson City has had the highest efficently rating among S&Ls. If you buy, try to sell before everyone else! I will dump my shares the first few days, and I am looking to buy below 10 down the road.
I should clarify that with the high valuations they become unattractive to the institutions that buy in the ipo aftermarket, especially when they are MHC and the bank is not a takover candidate.
I think the point others are making is not that there aren't plenty of people willing to risk their money on these bank deals like Kearny. The problem is there are so many people sending their money in it has caused the office of thrift to raise the valuations to a point they aren't as attractive!