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Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Message Board

  • JRH131313 JRH131313 Jan 28, 2005 11:14 AM Flag

    Now that the Kearny offering has closed

    Any thoughts on the following:

    1. Allocations
    2. Where this puppy opens when trading commences.

    For what it's worth, I'm hearing of fairly strong demand, so I don't think anybody below tier 1 gets shares.

    On the trading side, my guess is around 12-13. Rationale as follows:

    Pro-forma book on fully converted basis is about 11.25 (pg. 132). Can't see why we would trade below that given Kearny's footprint in Northern NJ. Pro-forma P/E looks high, but this is based on assumption that all proceeds will be invested in 1 year T-bills at 2.16% (pg 25), I would hope that they could do better. Also, they are counting the 70% unsold shares when calculating this EPS (I'd like to see a pro-forma P/E on a fully converted basis).

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    • Please enlighten, what is this hidden
      asset everyone, apparently, knows about.

      Thanks

    • Since you can't tell if they will sell that 2nd tier or when they will, best to ignore it.

      We all know they have a hidden asset, could be worth a lot, or little. Let's just use the stated numbers and compare it to the peer groups.

    • I'm thinking you're wrong about he 180% because of the impied capital that will be raised on the othe 70% of the stock. Can you explain how this is really 180% of pro forma book or are you just huffing and puffing?

    • No, dork, PFS was filled with $50.00. NOT thousands.

      And by sending in money "just because I have it available" you risk a repricing and a resolicitation.

      They raised the price 17% in November, you want them to re-raise it another 17% because idiots like you sent in $1 billion in funds?

      I think you forgot very little about the banking industry and know even less.

    • Hey Moron I forgot more about the banking industry than you'll ever know.
      PFS took about 3000 or 4000 to get 52000 shares;
      SYNF took the same. Recently it has been a lot harder. What i do know is that since I have all that money available to me anyway; I send it in just to be safe. In case the fear mongers like you scare people away i wanna benefit. You get interest on it anyway so the negative float is not much anyway.

      FYI I have covered banks from the institutional bond management side for over 20 years. I even know Jim Kranz of Hudson City very well.

      Cheers - HH

    • One reason it's so oversubscribed is morons like you who know nothing about thrifts think you can get a max order on a $9,000 order.

      Did you really think that you could get 8 shares per dollar of deposit?

      No wonder you think the 180% isn't comparable. It is. Ignore the MHC structure, fool.

    • As a result of a 30% float, I expect that KRNY will become a decent dividend payer. If they subscribe to a common practice, the 70% of stock in the treasury will forgo the dividend. Expect frequent increases in the dividend.
      Initial pop? No need to rush, it will trade at 14-15 before year end. The flippers will are not likely to see the stock at entry level price again.

    • good points in theory, I just wonder if there are examples of your theory being born out by good ipo aftermarket pricing??? And I mean lately in this crappy market. The other negative is that so many of these banks that intended to do a standard like home, clifton etc, are doing these MHC's and getting meager pops.

    • You are so full of crap. That 180% of book number is bogus as it ignore the 70% of stock they haven't sold. If they sold it at 10 their book more like 12 at least. Plus whenever they do sell it (like SYNF) it will assuredly be sold for a lot more than 10. If this deal blows so much why is it going to be so wildly oversubscribed. I only hope it goes to 6 or 7 like u predict so i can immediately buy up 4.999% of the stock...

    • The market is pricing 25 basis point hikes through the summer.. and beyod. Hikes are priced out to 2008 bringing Fed Funds up to 4%. My point is that it is already priced,, the Fed hiking rates as expected is not an issue. What you need to ask yourself is "will the pace of hikes increase and what effect will the hikes have on the shape of the yield curve" Also, Rates going up is not entirely bad as long as the curve steepens as a result. As long as the spread between short term rates and long term rates stays the same or widens, banks will benefit... These thrifts are mostly mortgage lenders, loans collaterilized by property. Currently they are benifitting from a 400 basis point spread.(6% mortage - 2% Passbook) Its a license to print money. Rest assured the FOMC will do all in its powers to keep these money making machins chugging along. Its highly un-likely you will see a worst case scenerio of an inverted yield curve. The FED recently mentioned that the curve was not steep enough!! My personal opinion is that the Fed will be done shortly and the curve will actually flatten further, but not invert.

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