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Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Message Board

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  • patient2invest patient2invest Sep 7, 2012 1:59 PM Flag

    Why trading at a premium?

     

    Here's what someone at Motley Fool's stated which I would have to agree with:

    M&T's first order of business in the Hudson City purchase is cleaning up its $13 billion in long-term debt by liquidating its similarly sized investment portfolio. The deal is to be financed 60% in stock, and 40% in cash. This will cause a $2.2 billion dilution of M&T shares. The good news, for M&T at least, is that the purchase price is less than 80% of Hudson City's tangible book value. And regardless whether Hudson City was experiencing profitability problems, no one ever questioned its capitalization. At the end of the second quarter, its total risk based capital was nearly 21% of assets. That rich capitalization will inure to M&T's benefit.

    I have liked M&T for a long time, as it was one of the banks least impacted by the recent recession, and never even came close to losing money in any year in the last fifteen. Hudson City was on pace to earn about $280 million in profits this year, and therefore, even with the $2.2 billion dilution, the deal should be immediately accretive to M&T. M&T stock jumped about 7%, or 4 points, the day the deal was announced. I am looking for earnings for this year to advance only about five percent from 2011, but aided by the Hudson City deal, to advance much more sharply in 2013. I do not believe analysts have valued future earnings of M&T favorably, and I look for earnings of over $8 per diluted share next year. Combined with its dividend yield of over 3% and I believe M&T is a top tier selection among bank investors seeking stability and income.

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