In a strong market, the exchange rate is usually at the upper levels and a pop can be expected at the open. Minority shareholders who owned before the second-stage announcement did very well. Those who speculated and bought the shares above $72, lost money on the offering. The depositors who took part in the offering enjoyed a 20% pop.
Valuations are, of course, a major consideration and at $12 a share it represented 152% P/B. It's ironic that depositors usually do better in the short run when there is a high exchange ratio with the minority shareholders. The reason is that the offering is hot, but in the long term, depositors get better value from a low exchange ratio. (Not unlike buying into thrift IPO's at high P/B ratios and doing very well because market is hot. When market cools off, P/B ratios are lowered and valuations are better but market pops are subdued).
For short term gains, MHC second-stages must take place in a strong market. There are too many variables involved in the transaction to second-stage in a market such as the present one. The next posting will look at the worst second-stage to date