Even on MolsonCoors, I haven't backed up the truck. I bought some at 45, with a couple other buys at 42 and 39, and sold some puts at 35. At 30, I would back up the truck. You are probably right to be concerned about the Nathan's ARS. If you are going to hold cash, bank deposits and treasury securities seem to actually be "cash", whereas other forms of "cash" are in reality, "trash". If the securities can't be redeemed, what good are they?
There's know limit to this as you know. You just have to try to have enough cash so you can keep buying more if there are significant drops. I know this is easier said than done. I was buying like crazy last year, and can't believe the commisions I paid, but I made out pretty well in the end. If takeovers go through I'm gonna have plenty of cash once again. I'm trying to be more controlled now. Recently I've been nibbling here and there, and waiting for 10% drops to add. I don't see anything where I want to back up the truck.
BTW, nath earnings looked good. Not happy about what I consider some frivolous legal crap, but things still look real good in general.
The MolsonCoors people have said taxes should be in the 20-22% area in the future, at least that is what I remember reading recently. I bought a bit more today at 39 and sold some puts around the 35 strike. I know things are soft out there but there is some market for low end beer. Half the company's income comes from Canada and in my opinion Canada has a much better fiscal position than the US, and is a desirable place to live for many, so I think TAP will do decently. I'm not married to the idea but it is approaching a pretty low valuation. My take is that if the economy really sucks going forward for a few years, they should still make around $3 EPS, unless unemployment really shoots up again. Because beer consumption is already low and unemployment is already high, earnings shouldn't fall too much from here unless there is a complete catastrophe in the economy. Granted, it seems possible!
Re IAX who knows with these people. I don't have that many shares but I'm not inclined to buy more because I don't really trust these IAX people for some reason. If there is another bid for over $5 it makes sense to hold on, though.