Saw the earlier "post" around 7 PM but Yahoo wouldn't let it be read. That info in the repost provides great detal and is quite helpful in APL/ATLS analysis with the new situation (as you point out , things are a bit different now versus 2007, 2008). I opted in early Dec. to be ATLS only, and in my IRA only. My expectation is ATLS will increase SP steadily over the next 2-3 years along with distributions ... with SP exceeding $50 in that time frame (easily, in my calculations , but nothing is ever for sure....).
I tried to post this to you earlier and lost it so might be a duplicate.
Before the Chevron transactions the multiplier on the 50% split was close to 2 to 1. Share count is now similar between ATLS and APL but ATLS owns about 5.8 million shares of APL. This is over 10% of shares outstanding so the multiplier once ATLS is keeping 50% of the distributable cashflow is closer to 1.15 to 1.
ATLS has a give back of 2.5 million per Q somewhere around 70 cents per Q to about 77 cents per Q. So after about 77 cents per Q ATLS will increase distributions at a rate of 115% of APL ( all things equal). Also APL will most likely trade at a yield of 6 or 7 % compared to a GP at 4 or 5%. So the GP share of distributions will be valued by the market as high as 25 to 1 (4%) compared to APL 16.6 to 1 (6%) so capital gains go to the GP. As far as tax deferred distributions: APL should be tax deferred up to 90% compared to a much lower rate on the GP. Depreciation does not pass through the IDR's to the best of my knowledge and since ATLS holding of APL shares are long term they would run out of tax shield before a new buyer of APL. ATLS will also have the second income stream from the spinoff of the partnership business and current reserves of the spinoff. As a GP the cashflows will likely be valued higher at the GP level then the spinoff level and it is likely that the cash flows from the spinoff will grow at at least as fast as at APL in the next few years.
The spinoff should gain account the low prices for natural gas have made the business model very attractive to buying reserves at low prices while using the capital from the partnership program to gain a part of the income stream from these properties. This will be a real kicker to ATLS when in 2 or 3 or 10 years natural gas prices rebound. I am sure they will and long term slow decline reserves will be repriced to the benefit of ATLS.
Even with the spread sheet I hesitate to dump APL for ATLS outright. APL has at least 10 years of steady and distributions ahead of it. ATLS is not as clear out a few years and tax changes could affect the partnership business more then APL.
If I had new investment dollars and more then a 3 year investment horizon then ATLS is a better play IMO.
My rough estimates are on the high end 40% yearly for ATLS going out 3 years is possible. APL I think 25% per year is a possibility. Both great returns with low downside.
Not sure how others have it figured.
BTW I have a habit of being early. Perfect play would be the market value of the increase in APL distributions to ATLS one Q later so 4th Q 2012 for a jump. The problem with this is the 16 Marcellus wells going to the spinoff and coming on line in Q 1. Average well used to be 2.5 million cubic feet a day so using that even though they have one well at over 20 million initial production: 16 wells 30% ownership 365 days average 1st year production 2.5 million per day 26 million shares for spinoff $3.50 per million btu's and conservative 1 million btus per thousand cubic feet produced. This is about 58 cents per share for spinoff or 29 cents per ATLS at 100 % passthrough next year. It is a lot of cushion when the first year distribution of the spinoff is at $1.60.
Down side limited next year and safety is paramount at my stage of investing.
back in the latter part of 2008 , APL and ATLS topped out their distributions in the mid- to hi- $0.90's per Q ...it would seem that this is a level possible to reach again , and perhaps exceed (given APL's expansion and the "promise" of the new entity) ... alota "if's" , but the possibility is there ...and this would drive ATLS SP on a steeper curve than APL's ?
I have switched some of my IRA from APL to ATLS. My regular taxable account I have kept my APL and have not decided what to do. APL is an easy holding with up to 90 percent of distributions estimated shielded from taxes compared to ATLS which will have a much lower tax shield. State taxes for APL simpler also, Texas no income taxe, Oklahoma has a $1,000 limit before you have to file, not sure if there will be Kansas income to file for or not. It looks like APL will do well for a decade with significant upside out to 2014. ATLS should do much better. I bought some January 2014 25 calls on ATLS. I expect the spin off shares to be attached to the options. Just have not been able to justify selling APL, paying the taxes and reinvesting in ATLS. Buying the calls was much easier. FWIW I sold ATLS 2014 30 puts to pay for the calls.
I hope it works out.
How is APL going to get from .54 to .75 in 4 quarters? They are now into the 25% split with the Cohens and about to enter the 50% area. Would love to know how you think APL is going to be able to grow its footprint, improve its credit rating (need about 1.4X coverage to do so) and accure another .40 in DCF per unit? I'm long APL but would love to hear how you think they can get there.