There may be a few reasons to treat the stocks very differently:
1) SAP makes their money off high end applications that are entrenched and very difficult to replace
2) Oracle makes much of their money off of database licenses and they are under increasing competition from Microsoft and others in their accounts, some of their applications are not performing that well at customer sites based on annecdotal reports of bugs.
3) Oracle already has twice the market cap of SAP- thus with higher valuation and more effective competition their stock is somewhat vulnerable. Some enterprise customers are now finding it cost effective to swap out Oracle database in their systems. SAP is less vulnerable to this swap out.
4) Weakness of telco markets- Oracle is strong in telco and such markets- those markets are not spending whereas SAP has a very diversified base of successful companies as their main market. Spending is still tough but it is relatively better than what is going on elsewhere. Sf
All very good points, not to mentioned Oracle Apps are horrible, bottom line! Their Web Store(IStore)is a disgrace, along with their lack of integrity, and weak Management & Sales Force on their Apps side of the house. Like them or not, Oracle is one of the leading dB companies out there, but they are nothing but a wannabe Application provider_ _ _End of Story.
You want to know where SAP can grow, taking out Oracle Apps, PeopleSoft, JDE Edwards in certain situations, but mainly taking out Siebel, Baan, Hyperion, i2, Manugistics, in Global and Mid to Medium size markets. Also, Niche and Best of Breed players are suddenly finding SAP knocking on their door with a legitimate chance to displace them as well. Think about it, how many customers does SAP have? Out of those thousands of customers, 90% have bolt-on apps attached to R/3. Expanding the footprint baby!
I think your points comparing ORCL and SAP make sense. However, I am still surprised by the fact that the whole sector (PSFT SEBL MANU ORCL) is getting hit hard today, while SAP displays relative strength.
I am in the ERP business myself and familiar with SAP's market. I don't see tremendous growth ahead for SAP. SAP is used in the bigger companies and those companies have all chosen / purchased their system. Most of SAP's future revenues will come from existing license revenues, upgrades and maintenance. There just is not much growth there. And with it's current P/E I think there is a good case to be made that SAP is overvalued.