Jobs speaks at All Things Digital and WWDC the first week of June, he is an 11% shareholder in Disney, the home page for which -- Disney.com -- is 100% Flash; the static iPad page looks like something from 1998
just in case you don't understand Flash, the application, publishes files called swfs...the same exact application publishes Quicktime and a variety of other formats...HTML5 will also be published by future versions of Flash, the design applicaiton
ADBE will still design the web via the application Flash
in the meantime
there is no GUI/WYSWYG publishing application for HTML5
so basically all of the web you see in Flash now?
will remain in Flash for years and YEARS
it took four to five years for Director to be decisively superseded by Flash
it takes YEARS for designers to ramp up to even basic competency
HTML5's <canvas> and <video> tags do not offer anything close to the coding complexity and power of Flash, the animation tools (IK/Dynamics), photoshop integration...HTML5 is not even supported in IE to the slightest degree
it is RIDICULOUS to think HTML5 will be published from anything other than an Adobe application, probably from the Flash application itself
think of your favorite band
the movie you last saw
go to its website
right click on it
see "Flash Player..." ?
now do you really think that site is going to be redesigned anytime this year? because of iPads???
there is not even a GUI software in which to design HTML5 interfaces
competitors will come out with hardware -- such as the Android -- which most definitely allow swfs...hardware is exponentially increasing, doubling in power EVERY YEAR...battery, CPU issues will soon not be a factor
what Cook and Jobs say this week and what AAPL does in May before the All Things Digital Conference are entirely different...they don't give a crap about telling millions of potential ADBE investors their strategic plans
by the time AAPL needs to purchase another company like ADBE Cook will be retired on Maui, Jobs will be lauded as a hard bargaining hero -- and you technically illiterate fan boys now bashing Flash will go to the same corner of the room the fruitcakes who argued against Windows on Intel chips were sent to after Bootcamp's release -- which, I predicted several months prior, too
AAPL would purchase the best video, word, web design software suite available; Google Apps and Microsoft Office can be decisively countered only with Adobe's massive suite of applications: from Acrobat to Dreamweaver, to InDesign to AfterEffects -- most are basically the ONLY professional applications in their niche.
HTML5 will take as much battery life and be as buggy as Flash were it ever to even approximate Flash's pervasiveness
it takes years and years and years to 1) create an application capable of publishing HTML5 2) convince college students entering the design field to adopt an entirely new media such as HTML5 3) bring those new designers up to par with current Flash programmers, animators, etc
In two years, there will be competitors to the iPad...they will ALL play Flash as a selling point...meanwhile, very, very few interactive, animated sites will have been HAND CODED in HTML5