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  • boar292hog boar292hog Jun 6, 2010 11:14 PM Flag

    Net income up 550% RFMD from...

    Jeff, great points one and all. I would argue that your account is purely looking backward and doesn't take into account, the following:1) RFMDs ever growing and diversified product line. As an example, RFMDs 6 inch pv panel for solar far and way outshines todays products around the world.2) Smart phone technology is not just in asia. 3) Smart everything is in the works, power grids, televisions, appliances and RFMD is/will participate.4) It is RFMD as of late who is gaining market share thru both technology and pricing. 5) This ship has turned around and the nay sayers have not been right for this company or this industry for coming up on a year now. 6) Finally, don't think for a minute that RFMD is sitting back not working on diversifying its client/customer base.
    I'll take the word/views of the many analysts who have upgraded their views or started coverage in a positive light before anyones view on this board. Also, though I don't like SOROS, I like the fact that he is committed on this stock.
    One more thing, I like positive cashflow and I particularily like growing positive cashflow.

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    • That's the bullish story, and the analysts are joining the bandwagon, but they haven't made the stock go up. The analysts did not believe the Rfmd story two to three years ago, but have come around as the results have come around. So putting faith in analysts is like agreeing with, "I think it's going to be a sunny day," when there are no clouds in the sky.

      It doesn't take much to be an analyst, especially when they have access to channel information. The problem with analysts is they follow many companies and their attention gets diluted. Some of the posters on this board are far more in tune with Rfmd's stock behavior than the analysts have proved to be, even without channel information access. Some of the analysts' questions on the conference calls over the past three years have proven they are not in tune with Rfmd; they're scrambling to get in tune with their own notes from the last conference call, the last time they spent any time on the company.

      It is the stock behavior itself that causes posters to wonder why Rfmd's story that you laid out has gotten no traction. Analysts don't comment on the stock price behavior perhaps since they've proven not to have much influence over it; they don't even scratch the surface for why Rfmd is not tracking like or acting like a healthy stock. Even Cramer has said he doesn't like the way the stock is behaving. So then, what do analysts contribute? Channel information and access to Rfmd management if they're willing to pass it on. Analysts apparently are not wanting Rfmd to succeed or to fail. They might not even want to see the stock go up or down except to be proven accurate. Otherwise, they'd be asking questions at the conference calls bringing focus to why the stock is behaving so poorly. They'd be pounding on the SEC for reasons why the stock is not reaching their own justified price targets. They'd be pounding on Rfmd management exhaustively to fix their balance sheet or whatever else they think is keeping the stock from hitting their targets. And if Rfmd mgmt thought analysts could move the stock, Rfmd mgmt would be doing what the analysts want so that the stock would react. But the results are clear: Analysts don't influence the stock and analysts don't influence Rfmd, not these days anyway, not much.

      So what good has an analyst been to the stock price?

      If you can answer that, then you can answer what good is an analyst to you?

      Soros' stake in the company is in the convertible debt.

      (Some of the analysts are doing a good job and have credibility for what they do, for as far as that takes them, for whatever that does for shareholders, maybe just letting them sleep at night.)

      • 2 Replies to monrio1
      • Monrio, great points ref/ analysts. My take is slightly more positive. After the tech bubble burst in 2000 and the recent slaughter in 2008, I have to believe anaylsts are late to the party everytime now purely out of job preservation. I don't look at an analysts view as a path to follow, I look at it as an endorsement/validation to a stock such as RFMD that I own!
        Regarding convertible debt, what a bullish expectation SOROS must have because convertibles usually benefit with a rising equity price since equity is what the conversion turns into!
        As long as the stock price is headed down, I'm gonna lean forward in the foxhole for awhile then reload at these lower prices and add to my position for a brighter day!
        Volatility has been very good to me!

      • Monrio, yes, the price. Unfortunately, this is a stock that is a real company that has turned the corner. If one considers the 20% swings this stock has made over say just the last the last 6 months or so, then its clear, someone is making some big money.
        The real problem is that the stock price is so low, every trading hack//can afford to play the game.
        Finally, after so many people lost so much money on this stock after the tech bubble popped, there is little love lost for the co/stock/mngmnt.
        The sun will shine again so saving up and building up during this rainy stock season will have its own rewards over time.
        I like your views on the company//its hard not to wish for better prices but wishing is for bridesmaids! LOL!