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  • boar292hog boar292hog Jun 26, 2010 10:04 PM Flag

    RFMD--camel--nose---tent! LOL!

    Monrio, after re-reading the earnings conf. transcripts from Jan '10 and April '10 RFMD is under priced, under valued, and treated like a red headed step sister! LOL!
    Anyone that ever went hunting for a target of opportunity has to add the numbers up and read the data/statements made during those calls!
    I read that they were shipping to all leading smartphone oems in the Jan '10 transcript. In any event, they have clearly charted a path away from reliance on one major OEM and there persistant new product introductions all add up to good news across more than just Cell phone components!
    I am optimistic and I think RFMD once again blows analysts and expectations out of the water! We will see next month at earnings! Your concerns may be on track but I think everyone is underestimating RFMD, again! Did I say again! YES !

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    • Boar292,
      I don't disagree with you. BTW, in Jan10, they stated they will be in all major smartphone makers in 15 months. They aren't now.

      The under-estimation you point out is built into the Rfmd PR strategy for handling Wall Street and online investors. So I agree with you this is a sandbag.

      However, the sandbag is starting to leak. The Rfmd base is still 80% cellular, and the Rfmd base is dependent largely on Nokia and Mediatek related shipments into China handset makers.

      Nokia is now under half of Rfmd revs but still just under half of revs and so any Nokia slowdown will affect Rfmd.

      Mediatek chipset related shipments at 450 million units will exceed the number of handsets that Nokia has been shipping and will ship. Repeat!

      Together, they represent 850 million to 900 million handsets.

      Both are slowing down from the peak in March, although we were told the Polaris will peak in June qtr. Mediatek revenues have dropped 15% roughly over that period.

      Polaris drops 5% by December, so there's another $10m to make up.

      So, let's face facts. Rfmd's two largest revenue generators which make up perhaps 75% of Rfmd cellular are slowing down.

      What is the impact to revenues of a 15% slowdown?
      $30 million to Rfmd.

      $220 million is the magic number where Priddy says operations can still thrive.

      I don't think we are headed to $220m, but that's what the market takes away from Nokia and Mediatek recent announcements, and the Polaris rampdown.

      If Nokia and Mediatek make their calls for 2H10 and say March demand has resumed, then your scenario is intact.