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Qorvo, Inc. Message Board

  • dbr_x6 dbr_x6 Apr 29, 2011 2:38 PM Flag

    S&P rising wedge getting pretty extreme.

    Time for a mid rally retest, imo.

    Market wants to just go on to 1450 but is getting terribly overbought and the more this persists, the worse the outcome will be.

    It's entirely possible this is the top of the cyclical bull market, although I wouldn't expect a crash right away. Maybe run into lower highs until the Fall or even for another year or something.

    Eitherway, I think the easy long trades are about done for this economic cycle.

    got TNA puts?

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    • ...never fight the tape....

    • Retest of what?

      Agree appears the S&P 1440 swing will get hit.

      Overbot? I don't know how you can say that. The Mar 2009 bottom was 666.79. Went up to a high of 1219.80 in Mar 2010. Retraced to 1010.91. So, 1219.80-666.79 = 553.01. A 100% extension would be 1010.91 + 553.01 = 1563.92. The SPX just closed at 1363.61. That's NOT overbot. It paused at 61.8% and may pause again and maybe even retrace @ 78.2% but it not overbot.

      What cyclical bull market is that? You mean the last 2 years? Once the SPX breaks 1564 then we can start talking about a cyclical bull market.

      The economic cycle lags the equity cycle. I'm not sure the economic cycle has even started up yet.

      Have to disagree; the long trade is still the safe trade at least until SPX 1440 where it is possible we could see a consolidation or even a correction.

      Look, there is a ton of stimulus money and TARP money that hasn't been put to work yet and its all about liquidity. Also, there is no doubt in my mind that we (the USA) have to continue to devalue the dollar to inflate away the debt. So over the long run expect inflation of everything tangible including equity.

    • Sold my May TZA puts maybe a bit too early but locked very nice profits. I'm wondering if S&P is going to hit 1385 before some small correction occurs so is there time for a very short additional minor play with the May TZA puts? Longer term, I'm looking for a good entry for more June mid to upper 20s TZA puts and the coming correction will surely provide it.

 
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