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RF Micro Devices Inc. Message Board

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  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Jul 17, 2011 8:16 PM Flag

    We're quickly getting to the point .......

    >>>Wanna fix the ecconomy. Simply fix the market! Americans can then count on increasing wealth through a FAIR AND EQUITABLE market. They'll go out and buy a car, etc.<<<

    "...increasing wealth..." is probably not a likely scenario for the coming decades in the developed world. Taking care of all the white hairs will be job 1; not making new cars.

    Then there's the problem of energy. We've likely reached peak energy (peak production rates). We know where the oil is, the whole world is mapped and there are no more big oil fields to discover; the last big find, the North Sea, has peaked; production is declining; Britain is now importing again. We're having to drill in miles-deep water. As for natural gas, all the easy gas has been had and what's left, although a lot of it, is difficult to get, has lower production rates, takes more and more and more wells to get the same production, ie., the shale gas. The majority of US coal production now comes from the dirtier western sources. Eastern coal production has peaked and rolled over. The EIA forecasts that renewable energy sources will double in 25 years. But they only account for 5% of current energy production; so, 10% in 25 years. Not fast enough and probably not even a viable solution compared to fossil fuels. (A barrel of oil does the work of 25,000 manhours; 1 guy working for 12 years). We'd have to cover 1/2 of the state of California with solar panels to meet just our current electrical demand, not including growth. Oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear are forecasted nearly flat
    over the next 25 years. So how can wealth as we know it increase with essentially no growth in energy consumption/production?

    With this outlook it doesn't make much sense to buy a house, especially in the suburbs, miles from an economic center. Walmart has figured this out, they're getting into the small store concepts, ie., Dollar Tree, Dollar General model. Better to stay mobile; as many people have already discovered; wishing they had never bought that boat anchor. So the bust of the housing bubble will not recover anytime soon. I expect the McMansions will be converted to multi-family slums. Food will get more expensive or even rationed. The green revolution was done on the back of oil. Every calorie of American food takes 10 calories of oil to produce.

    The problem is that our whole economic system is founded on the principal of growth. Our debt-based monetary system demands that debt be produced in order to increase the money supply. Debt has to increase always and forever or we collapse the system. (making this current political debate over the debt ceiling so fundamentally ridiculous). Anyway, its not sustainable, without relentless effieciency growth and ergo, energy consumption growth.

    Buy and hold? Nahhh.

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