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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Message Board

  • a0002604 a0002604 Sep 23, 2011 6:06 PM Flag

    ARR is doomed piece of crap

    Between the SEC stuff and twist and poor managemnt here, it will be lucky to stay above CIM's pitiful $3 level. It's a a falliung knife that is falling to sub $1.

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    • Your indepth analysis of why "ARR is a doomed piece of crap" brought tears to my eyes. Never have I heard it so well explained.

    • Should see arr gain traction and pick up steam after the others cycle through their divi push (push to me means relative)

      seeing more downward pressure in the arms versus the fixed (agnc and nly) but arr is a mixture -

      below book now certainly makes it more attractive versus the others that are above such as nly and agnc

      the fixed moved over the floats and now you will see a push back the other way im guessing.

      i remember when there were less fears out there 3 months ago and arr couldnt do much more then 7.35 to 7.40 while the others had rallied - then they cycled and arr made a 7 to 10% move on the others as the focused shifted to arr dividends and there was no focuus for the others.

      • 1 Reply to reikreik
      • Hi Reikreik,

        Its forward settling purchases at favorable rates in April and June should normalize in the 3rd quarter. Meaning increase in net interest income.

        End of month market mortgage rates closing the 3 rd quarter out at record lows will boost valuations, that is if ARR didn't hedge to much on the interest rate swap contracts.

        What is hanging out in those contracts is the one variable that is hard to pin down. But my guess is considering the big buys in MBS in April and June management had an idea that rates were going to drop more. So you have pure valuation gains without the offset of the hedge contracts.

        I like this REIT its gonna have a turn around quarter.

    • CIM has made me thousands this year. I wish all my other investments were as pityful. If so I would be on a private island sipping Long Island ice teas for the balance of the year.

    • Shorties favorite word Doomed and POC..

      Linking ARR to CIM is misnomer as well.

      CIM got into non-agency backed mbs, ARR invests in agency backed MBS. Which means if their is a default the feds pick up the tab.

    • Yes, I hope it gets donw to $1 ... A 100%+ yeild would be fantastic! Which is why it won't happen. CIM is entirely different but at $3 it still doesn't yeild as much as ARR. And if CIM yeild goes up, so will PPS.

      People are worried about TWIST. With short term notes, the gov can reinvest over and over again over the short period of time keeping it going and it works. With the 10 year notes, they are stuck on a one time deal -- to make it work they would have to pump more and more over 10 years to recycle -- that aint going to happen. TWIST has been tried befor and it didn't work then, with higher interest rates ... what makes anyone think it is going to work now with even lower interest rates?

    • Yes...Say many more negative comments and drive this stock lower.
      I want to buy a boat load real soon.

    • let us know how much you short or at least what prices........we will keep track of your gains for you........

      not disagreeing with your opinion...but do question your willingness to back it up .........

      further i do consider shorting a respectable form of investing ...........THAT MANY WHO DO SUCH HAVE MADE BIG BUCKS OVER TIME.......

      THE BOARD CAN BENEFIT FROM SHORTERS AS MUCH AS LONGS................ IS NOT AS MUCH DATA AS FAR AS ACTIONS ARE CONCERNED BY THE SHORTERS............

      I PERSONALLY WOULD LOVE TO SEE SHORTERS ANNOUNCING THEIR PLAYS AND UPDATING SUCH OVER TIME

      thanks .......tug

 
ARR
3.19+0.01(+0.31%)Mar 3 4:02 PMEST

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