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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Message Board

  • A Yahoo! User Jan 28, 2013 1:24 PM Flag

    do yo uthink this is the ceiling share price?

    Its been resisting for weeks. doesnt seem to want to get above 7.05. the trend for the past two years has been decreasing dividends, i fear the same will happen next qtr. wouldnt it then drive share price down? my avg price is 7.31 and it seems less and less likely to reach that. maybe i'll just sell off 1/3 or 1/2 of my holdings.

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    • There is no such thing as a ceiling share price. Positive news releases will push the share price higher as investors anticipate greater upside and are willing to pay more per share.

      If ARR announces a dividend reduction to say .07 per share you will see the share price drop to about $6.50 then settle around $6.75.

      I get the above estimate from calculating the typical price of ARR per the calculated 12 month dividend yield. (.07*12)/13% = $6.50.

      I personally feel like ARR will achieve $7.31. Things which need to happen:

      -Federal Qualitative Easing must expire. This will make the spreads earned by ARR more lucrative and will generate greater earnings/dividends.

      -The US economy must continue to improve to a point where investors are willing to pay near book value for ARR instead of the discount to book value the current market price of ARR produces.

      Sentiment: Buy

3.85-0.12(-3.02%)Sep 30 4:02 PMEDT

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