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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Message Board

  • h5n1eric h5n1eric Jun 18, 2013 4:29 PM Flag

    let's take another view....rates

    When QE1 & QE2 ended, rates actually pulled back...probably because their were still worries about a weak economy...I'm not saying that rates will fall on the tapering & eventual ending of QE INFINITY, but I think rates are more a function of GDP growth / inflation pressures / inflation expectations / productivity & capacity utilization - and none of those metrics (right now) argue for higher rates (or zooming rates). So, that's the other, contrarian argument...(plus you have a lot of unrest in the world right now, so money comes here seeking safety...good for stocks and also can keep bond rates lower & dollar stronger. So, all this ranting about zooming 10-yr rates seems a bit overblown, imo...and when everyone goes to one side of a trade, I like to move to the other side of the boat.
    But that's just me....always the skeptic.

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    • ps...I'm not heavily into ARR (2% of portfolio) I don't give a "rat's..."...I'm almost exclusively into preferred stocks...with biggest positions in the high yielding NRF preferreds, which I actually hope do not move higher UNTIL I can push even more money into them (actually, I have a rather warped plan...i.e. I'm quite ok with the preferreds bleeding lower, as I plan on pushing more money into them, at even better yields & lower plan on selling them...and they eventually expire at par, anyway...But I hope they last long after the expire dates - and I can just go for CASH FLOWS, while ignoring the underlying stock prices....Cash flow is my only goal. Not looking for appreciation in the preferreds.

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