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Citigroup Inc. Message Board

  • msporter21 msporter21 May 30, 2006 3:09 PM Flag



    If your prediction of $100 oil happens this summer, then stagflation is back. Oil prices at that level will certainly make it into wages and that's real inflation. The Fed would continue to raise rates to stamp out inflation. It's absolutely nuts that our economic system works this way, but that's what will happen.

    Our government has been so incredibly irresponsible and eventually there is a price to pay for being irresponsible. Sometimes the price to pay happens very quicly.

    Anyway, if your prediction comes true, run for the hills.

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    • Have a great time in Hawaii.... You may not want to come back.....

    • I have followed your posts for a couple of years, and i have enjoyed reading them. I followed you into ECA last year and am up about 20%. Thanks

      I am getting awlfully nervous about the market in general. I agree that C has been very strong, but don't understand why

      If you are ever near Hopkinsville, KY, I will gladly spring for lunch

      Please post your trades in the future

    • I'm sorry I haven't gotten back with you on your questions but I've been extremely busy with my work. I'm also getting ready for a vacation to Maui this coming Saturday. I'll be gone from Jun 3-11 and when I return I'll answer your questions.

    • You�ve had a successful career, congratulations. I�ve noticed that you�re a very patient investor by your willingness to wait for Citigroup to go back to the $45 range, I hope you get it. It�s seldom that you find people on the boards with transparency and patience that you have demonstrated. If you�re ever in LA let me know, maybe we can meet for coffee.

      I never used my degree to work for others but maybe its helped in my work today. I do custom glass and mirror for top celebrities and affluent clientele. It�s interesting and I enjoy it, so that�s worth something within itself. I�m not in a position to retire unless I sell my house and live somewhere less attractive. I�m not likely to do that because I�m happy here and hope to retire in LA. I hope you enjoy Houston. Texas has attractive tax benefits and warm weather which can�t be bad.

      Your absolutely right about most people not succeeding in the market for the reasons cited. A plan with rules and structure in necessary to beat the market. It�s also helpful to admit when you�ve made a mistake. Those that don�t or won�t admit a mistake, cannot possibly learn from them.

      Good luck!

    • Ha, 1949... Well. I'm a 1951 baby....born and raised in the streets of NYC. It's good to know that there are some mature individuals on these boards.....

      I agree. i find I make the most mistakes in the market when I lose track of my plans or change the way I trade....

    • You need to re-read my earlier posts. My prediction is that oil will hit at least $100/barrell in the next couple of years and we are just 1 major event from an $80 spike right now. The world production of apprx 86 million bls/day equates to the supply of 86 million bbls/day. As China, India, et al continue to consume more, demand otstrips supply and oil will continue to go up. I am aggressively trading every rally/pull back in the oil patch and have done so successfully 7 different times this year

      I was 60% in cash, but moved to 50% when the S&P 500 briefly touched <1250 in mid-day trading.

      If the S&P 500 goes back down to the <=1250 level, I will put more money to work, but will reserve at least a 25 to 30% cash position pending the outcome of the June Open market Committee mtg.

      I still see the S&P 500 trading at 52 wk highs in the 4th qtr

      If the market tanks, this Summer, I will put all my money back, having sold at higher levels. I will continue to hedge my portfolio with ECA, a canadian Natural Gas/Oil Sands company. C remains very strong and i will roll my June $47.50 calls out to July/August right before expiration, or will buy them back if we get a dip <$48

      Having invested and studied the market for over 30 years, one must have a plan to make money in all different situations and play the hand that is dealt. I am waiting for Bernake to play his cards on June 28/9

      good luck

      • 1 Reply to typea1949
      • I like your oils stock! Mind if I trade if too? LOL

        I crunched the numbers and the results turned out pretty good. The only drawback is using the daily chart. I don't like the daily as much as the weekly since it trades at the open and that's 6:30AM for me.

        Maybe we can discuss good entry and exit points if you don't mind. Currently my program is long. It has had 36/43 or 83.72% wins and a profit ratio of 8.31:1 and a net of $14019 with losses of $1916 since 12-17-01. The compounded returns are much better with a net gain of $33486. If you would like a full report, let me know and I'll be glad to send it to you.

    • msporter, perhaps you are right that the Fed would somehow feel the need to continue raising rates if oil hit $100, but how would higher rates curtail oil demand by China & India. How would higher rates affect oil prices? I'm not making a counter argument, I truly don't understand the connection.

      • 1 Reply to hajohn08
      • hajohn,

        The Fed states their number one job is to control inflation. Ofcourse you know they use short term interest rates as a tool for controlling inflation. If employees demand higher wages to offset higher energy costs, then those costs will be passed on to the consumer with higher costs for goods and services. The Fed considers higher wages as real inflation and they would move to offset inflation by attempting to slow the economy and slow demand.

        A slowdown in U.S. activity should slow foreign economic activity. Most foreign nations heavily rely on exports to the U.S., so a slowdown here should create a slowdown over there. If the world economies slow, them demand should also for crude should also be reduced.

        That's my interpretation.
        I have no doubt the Fed will aggressively raise rates if energy costs start making their way into wages. Only probem, it could cause stagflation.

        We'll have to see how this plays out.

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