As you know, the yield curve is inverted again. The 3-month and the ten year are inverted by 14 points right now. Historical evidence suggests the chance for recession is around 40% when this condition exists. The stronger the inversion and the time of inversion increases the likelyhood of recession.
The Yield Curve is one a few financial barometers that has a predictive track record. Empirical evidence speaks for itself.
NewsFlash! We are IN A RECESSION! I follow the curve too and it keeps dipping in one. Ofcourse we'll get another hurricane, or something and this admin will blame it on that, but it wont be until 6 mos from now that they'll say we entered one at the end of Aug/Sept. Notice the activity on Defensive stocks? Big money is moving. BUD, MO, STZ, KMB, PG, JNJ, etc.
If you have read the board over the last few years, you know I have posted many times about the yield curve. I didn't want to sound like a broken record, but it's the only barometer with a track record that I know of.
The empirical evidence strongly suggests the yield curve's predictive ability. It's the only barometer I know of that has a proven track record.