What would worry me is that we were down here about 30 days before the Q1 results came out, and look where we ended up. This Q, even with the $8.9B writedown C "MAY" take is expected to be better than the last. C has one other thing going for it; early in the Q, Pandit said "liquidity is normalizing." I wouldn't be surprised if the conference call reveals they were able to get rid of some of their bad debt, Buffet has admitted to being a buyer of it. (It general, not from C)
I agree. But I realize that fear is driving the market. As I said in an earlier post, I bought C today for 6% less than I could have gotten it last week. And last week I knew C was expected to take $6-10B in writedowns, that the Fed was going to leave rates unchanged, and oil was trading at $138. Nothing has changed other than it was advertised everywhere you looked, all day long.
C is doing what is expected. They are cutting jobs, selling assets, and purchasing businesses in Asia and Brazil, two of the fastest growing economies. Maybe they will cut the dividend but in Q1 there net cash outflow was only about 1% of their cash on hand. I think the dividend cut is built in; if they cut it we should rally because it is probably the right thing to do. If they don't cut it the market could perceive it safe as things begin to improve.