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Citigroup Inc. Message Board

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  • arq33333 arq33333 Jun 28, 2008 8:22 PM Flag

    To Buy or Short Financials - what a dilelemma !!

    The correct move is to long stocks in the next 3 months, then switch to the short side after October.

    First, the Fed will fight to death. That means, they will print more money to support stock market. We will see the last round of short squeeze to kill most shorts in summer. The correct move is to buy GOOG, BIDU, AAPL and other selected NASDAQ stocks. (You need to be careful. 40% of companies will warn in their July quarter even their current quarter is good. I think the three companies I mentioned are still safe for the next three months. Companies that will warn are DELL, HPQ, IBM, GRMN, EBAY , SONY, NOK, TXN, RIMM and AMZN.)

    Second, when the fall comes and most shorts are already dead, the crash will begin, probably in October November. This will be the mother of all crashes. Normally, people who short the stocks will cover their shorts when they think the stock prices are reasonable. Unfortunately, this time there are no shorts left to be the buffer thanks to Bernanke. If you took risk to long techs in summer, you are the few who have to the cash to buy tons of puts now.

    Monday we will see the market bottom at 2,250 (NASDAQ) and the summer rally begin. Load up October calls, my friend. You defintiely want to buy GOOG at $450 - $480 range. It can get to high $600's in September.

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    • lol buy goog,bidu,aapl? lol. goog will fall to 200-300 in next 2 months and aapl will fall below 100, bidu will thats not a bad pick but that will come down 5-10%! just watch, we arent even close to being done, it just started. watch for nice "dead cat bounce" in the middle before it starts going back down again. if you wanna go long on any thing wait for 6-8 months and you will be alot safer!

 
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