One of the major problems on this board, (beyond the dozens of racist, off topic lunatic posts), is believing too much is going to happen too soon.
Could Citi hit $4 by Friday, sure, but I'd be surprised. Personally, I believe it is going to trade in a range of $3.25 to about $4.25 over the next few months.
What will change that?
1) Real improvement in the economy.
If we continues to see home sales increase, and small price increases in those sales, that would be great. Very important will be a rise in consumer confidence, especially going into the fall and the holiday shopping season. Most important though will be signs that the employment numbers are not only easing but really improving. If the July unemployment number is better than expected, then we can see a nice move in all stocks. The current rate is 9.5%, the consensus according to Bloomberg, is 9.7%. If it comes in at 9.6%, that would be seen as excellent news.
2)Citi itself needs to show real improvement.
There is no doubt as the WSJ article says, things are better, but the company needs show real results. Showing a positive EPS because of some big asset sale isn't enough, it needs to be a clean number. Hopefully, that there are basically no more preferred share dividends to pay out, should add a couple of billion to the bottom line each quarter for the foreseeable future.
There is money to be made in this stock, it is just going to take a few years.
I agree with everything you just said, but I disagree with the time frame. Yes, it will definately take time. But the market is very speculative (to state the obvious).
By the time the writing is on the wall you're already too late. For example; your assertion that profits based soley on revenue "would be nice" is an huge understatement. When Citigroup climbs out of the hole and starts earning legitimate profits, IMO we're looking at double digit stock prices.
The *signs* that improvements are coming are what will incrementally drive up the stock price. And the more convincing the sign, the larger the incriment.
oxfdblue62: I agree with your posting that too many believe too much is going to happen too soon. I agree $3.25 to $4.25 over the next few months and your analysis of what would change that. However, even $4.25 is a hell of a return from where we are now, so I have to disagree with your last line which kind of contradicts what you said earlier. It's not going to take a few years. There is money to be made in this stock in the next six months. $4.25 is a 33% return from where we are now. If you believe the downside risks are relatively low--based on C's low book value, the uncertainty of the conversion behind us, the recession ending, and faith (hope) that C's worst loan loss recognition is behind it)--then this is a great risk-adjusted investment at this price.
Oxfdblue: I agree. I've been trading C, BAC and the entire sector for some time, and thru luck and stubborn refusal to believe all the hysterical talk that all things financial were doomed have managed to garner a small fortune just in trading all of them. Now that the FUD is dying down (amazing, really, how all the pro's were blindsided by all of it and ended up running around in circles shrieking), and it's becoming increasingly clear (as was to me some time ago) that the sector, and players within it, will survive I do believe the likes of C, BAC and all the rest will do well over the next few years.
And by longer term basket of holdings related so, too, will I (I expect). But it won't be a straight up run. Oh, no...there will be back-filling, p/b's and consolidation along the way. Regardless, the probabilities of upside (longer term) are vastly higher than the downside. Serious consideration needs to be given by investors to how this can benefit them longer term and be acting (now) on it.
All imho, of course. ;-)
HAHA "C should move up on Monday". This is the weak of the latest news to hit C in a week. Each time had little if any change in the stock price.
I wish it were that easy with this POS. "Get good news and the stock price goes up" equation doesn't work with this pile of junk.
Nobody is claiming that C is as good as JPM, you are right C is the weakest of the banks, but what all people are saying that it is reflected in current share prices, and it is likely that better prices might in the way, if the world economy starts showing a little light at end of the tunnel.
So, the odds of better prices is on the up side, that is what lot of articles are saying.
It was actually re-posted sat. by WSJ. Mostly a rehash of last weeks Barrons article. Makes sense as WSJ and Barrons are the same company. Still relevent and hopefully true . I've staked a lot of money On it and so far quite happy with my choice.