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Citigroup Inc. Message Board

  • hopping_on_bandwagon hopping_on_bandwagon Jun 21, 2010 9:07 AM Flag

    Whitney

    It's still disappointing and yet entertaining how very few have figured out that no one, Whiteny included, can accurately predict the future on a consistent basis. In fact, even when their predictions are proven true, they didn't so much "predict" the future as they "guessed" it. It's like someone with a coin says "I'm going to flip this coin 10 times, and you need to guess whether it will come up heads or tails". The odds of one person doing it are 1 in 1024. But if you have a large number of participants, there's a good chance that someone will "predict" the head/tail combination correctly 10 times in a row. And so it is what analysts and the market. There is such a large number of them, and they are consistently predicting things. Eventually, one of them gets it right. But, just like the coin toss example, do you think the person who guessed right in the 10 flip experiment is any more likely than anyone else to get it right again if a second 10 toss experiment is run?? HOP

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