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Vascular Solutions Inc. Message Board

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  • eu9mec eu9mec Apr 16, 2012 11:09 PM Flag

    VASC is oversold

    No, I am not in the medical field, but I've been following this stock for some time. The first thing to know is that the CEO, Howard Root, is very knowledgeable--if you have the time, go on the website and listen to one of their conference calls.

    Regarding ClosureFAST, yes, you're right, VASC is simply acting as an intermediary. I'm guessing the margins here are around 40%. I'm optimistic because they signed up so many doctors in two weeks time (I think somewhere around 4% of the doctors)...projecting that out, I'd think they'd have 25% of doctors signed up by end of March. Now market size: I don't know this but I'm estimating the whole market is about $25-30 million for VASC (that is, if VASC signed 100% of doctors and all used the reprocessing, they would generate 25-30 million of revenue). If I'm right about 25% of doctors at March 31st, then Q2 should result in >$1 million (25% x 25 million/4 x 90% yield x 75% use:signup ratio). An extra 1-1.5 million would have a big impact on VASC stock.

    I don't think ClosureFAST will have much other benefit on cross-selling and there's no cannibalization of VASC products here.

    The drop in quarterly revenue, Q3 to Q4, had to do with the end of an agreement, so a one-time event.

    If you are looking at this company, this is a great time to research and get into it. Earnings are next week on Tuesday. I suspect that people are little wary of the stock right now because it has disappointed. I think management gave good revenue guidance but low earnings guidance for Q1. It should exceed on eps.

 
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