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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

  • my_views_on_this_topic my_views_on_this_topic May 22, 2012 6:27 PM Flag

    My views on FB

    1 billion users? That would be a joke if it was not for the fact that people are roaming around with more than one profile to perform different kind of activities, like gaming, friends, families, trolling, developer test profiles, multiple profiles to provide comments in countries where opinions are censored, etc, not to forget "active" users like peoples cats, dogs, snakes, rabbits, underage kids, view-my-pretty-babies who cannot type, etc. I wonder if even a 100 million would a realistic estimate.

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    • I ran two ads a day (travel discounts) for six months on FB which amounted to sales of ZERO. Users clicked on the ads and made nice comments on the page and then left to chat with fellow FB users. I closed my account with FB after the six months. Value of FB based on the revenue of $0.39 and a CEO who isn't interested in making money for his stock holders (Zuckerberg made that statement) is about $9.00 a share.

      • 4 Replies to my_views_on_this_topic
        As noted, Facebook does NOT have a "billion users." I manage social media for clients. I have 11 for Facebook accounts for myself, and an average of six each for 22 clients. That's 143 accounts for just SEVEN users.
        Facebook does not delete INACTIVE Accounts! Many accounts how they have 5,650 "friends." But FB says one can have a max of 5k. So how's that possible. Simple. Even when one deletes their account, FB keeps it on their books to show their advertisers that they are getting value for their advertising dollar. IN THIS WAY FACEBOOK HAS BEEN COOKING THEIR BOOKS - and gaining a much higher share value than is warranted.
        As the poster above noted. ALMOST NO ONE BUYS ANYTHING FROM OR BECAUSE OF FACEBOOK. FACEBOOK ADS ARE LARGELY IGNORED. If one wants to buy something, they go to Amazon, Ebay, Overstock, Walmart but not Facebook! Facebook simply posts revenues that they don't have and pays taxes on it. That way they can prove higher valuations.
        No reasonable person, with any Facebook experience, should buy this garbage stock.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • Facebook isn't sustainable and will be replaced in due time. going public was mark's final breath to make a massive amount of money. it's all downhill from here.

      • Facebook advertising is extremely expensive and extremely ineffective. I tried it once (running ad) on Facebook and it drained my budget within hours and didn't make a single sale. The same type of ad running on Google would bring me some businesses and the same budget would last a whole day on Google. That's why Facebook is going to lose its sales because advertisers will find out, sooner or later.

      • When it comes to IPO's.. unless your an insider, expect to get your face ripped off! The people of Facebook thank you all for the free money!

    • Everyone needs at least 3 IDs to test and understand the behavior - that is a given for many. Then it is cute to create one for your pets and kids. I'm sure some do that too.

    • The only reason FB is not going down to $0 is because the underwriters are buying the stock each time it goes down $30. At some point they are going to release that same stock out on the market with an even larger loss for it's investors. Here is your way of making money from the same people who stole your money in the first place. The banks and other organisations that overvalue a product without proper analysis/research, and who attempt to shove hype down people' throats. There is a way of making money off FB. Not by buying it's shares - it will be worthless soon, but by SHORTING it. I recommend everyone find out how to short FB and do it. This stock has absolutely no value as an advertisement business model or otherwise. There are a minisule number of people that click through on FB ads. But there are an even lesser number of those individuals that actually buy from those clicked-through ads once their initial curiosity of opening that ad has been fulfilled. Make your money shorting this stock. It isn't even worth $5.

    • Facebook's stock has dropped by half since the IPO three months ago.

      And the stock price is now well below the level at which most employees have been granted stock in the past 18 months.

      This means that most current and former Facebook employees are worth far less than they were a few months ago.

      Facebook's stock crash is also hurting morale at the company, and damaging perception of the company's business and brand. The impact is big enough that Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who has been crystal clear about his desire to ignore the stock price, admitted at a company meeting that the stock crash has been "painful" for everyone.

      With the Facebook employee lock-up releases coming in October and November, this isn't just an issue of morale and "paper net worth." Current and former Facebook employees have been counting on the stock to buy things (houses, for example). So it's a matter of near-term financial planning.

      With this in mind, here's what Facebook employees should understand about their stock price:

      The stock crash has nothing to do with the quality of Facebook as a company. The stock is tanking because investors are radically revising (downward) their outlook for Facebook's future financial performance and earnings. The range of "fair values" for Facebook stock is unfortunately extremely wide, and investors are examining Facebook's recent results and concluding that the fair value is much lower than they thought three months ago.

      The market is "re-assessing" Facebook because of three things:
      1) the rate at which revenue growth is decelerating,
      2) the impact of the shift to mobile, and
      3) the decline of the company's profit margin based on the decision to invest more for future growth.

      All of those factors suggest that Facebook is unlikely to be "the next Google," which is what many investors assumed it would be when it went public. (This was the investors' fault--not yours).

      Facebook's stock price is still expensive relative to the current expected earnings growth for the company. At $20, the stock is trading at 31X next year's projected earnings per share of $0.65. Apple and Google, for comparison, trade at less than 15X. Facebook could easily trade at 20X-30X next year's earnings and still have a nice valuation. So the stock could go considerably lower.

      Facebook's stock is not likely to bottom until one or more of three things happen: 1) revenue growth reaccelerates, 2) margins stop declining and start expanding, 3) the stock falls to a level that is objectively "cheap," at which point value investors will start buying it. We're a long way from that level.

      The upcoming "lockup" releases will likely keep pressure on the stock--unless the company's revenue growth suddenly accelerates. Lots of you will understandably want to sell some of your stock, and the market already knows that and is adjusting for that. If you all decide not to sell, that will probably help the stock price modestly around the time of the lockup releases. But it won't make a lick of difference over the long term. So if you want to sell, sell. Although it won't feel like you're getting a good price, unless the stock completely collapses from here, you will be getting a fine one.

      LinkedIn and Amazon enjoy much higher price-earnings multiples, but there are several reasons for this--none of which suggest that Facebook is undervalued. The main one of these reasons is that both companies have low profit margins that are expected to expand rapidly. This will drive very fast earnings growth. Facebook's margins, meanwhile, are expected to continue to decline, which means that earnings will likely grow faster than revenue. (For more analysis of the company's relative stock price, please read this article).

      There is absolutely nothing you can do about the stock price in the near term. The stock price is going to do what it is going to do. And, contrary to the assertions of some observers, today's stock price has nothing to do with the NASDAQ screwup on IPO day, a failure of your managers to aggressively "market" the stock, or any other factors. Your CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, was very clear in the IPO prospectus about your desire to focus on the long-term at the expense of the near-term. That is very admirable and wise. Too many American companies ruin themselves by managing their businesses for the near-term stock price. But unfortunately it means that, in the near-term, your stock price is going to take it in the teeth.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Also, it is important to note that you went public at the peak of the stock price. Most of the Rocket Ride happened when you were a private company.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • At $38, FB was projected at 20 times it's current earnings. FB was touted as having almost 1 billion users. Now if we do so say that FB meets it's target and reaches it's 20x goal, it would mean 20 billion users. Does something seem wrong here? There are only 7 billion people in the world. And even at 7 billion do you REALLY believe that they all are dying to get on FB. If you research correctly you may find articles on how 2-3 of every 5 users interviewed have cancelled or do not plan to ever get onto that bandwagon. At the most there may be only about a 100 million users, if even that much. Take out of the equation about 4-6 game profile accounts per single individual, users that have pet accounts, band pages and numerous accounts for their band members, multiple accounts for developers that test the products, multiple accounts for advertisers that do not want to be recognized with different products, multiple accounts for users to check how their account looks when it is locked, etc, multiple accounts for stalkers. This is all from a first person perspective since I have sat it on meetings where these kind of cases were discussed.

      FB is highly overpriced. Zuckerberg did what he needed to do, which is to hype the product out of the market and milk it out on the rest of the gullible investors when they bid without research. From here on out, his profits have been made. This product should not have been at even $100 million. It's another dot com joke who's hype was pushed down everyone's throat.

    • The FB community gets nothing for all the time invested in that site. People do not earn from using the product, and if anything, the community "as a whole" has no way of supporting itself while spending their valuable time on FB pages (except those that find ways of marketing products to these same dumbed down flock). A McDonalds customer gets a service and product for money spent. Even spending money on a movie ticket would have some sort of a return more than using FB (though I do not recommend those sky high prices either). Any virtual entertainment value from FB is boasting about yourself, or letting others know what you're doing, liking every minute of the day. All the tool does is make someone else rich. Congratulations if you're one of these end users for helping make that happen. I sincerely hope none of the FB users are the ones that frequent the occupy wall street or the 1 percent movement, or griping about the rich having so much, or inflation going through the wall, because if you are, here's a classic story of how it works. You are in fact making it happen when you use these kind of solutions.

    • its probably more like 400mil active users. i know because i have 2 or 3 accounts i used once then never again lol..

      not sure if they account for "closed" accounts either or if they just stay inactive.

      either way, FB is a fraud obviously, like goldman.

    • For anyone wondering where social networking sites (SNS) get their revenues from,

      SNS bank on the concept that it can gather as much information from the way users behave on it's sites, objects/events they like, friends that like the same criteria. They can then easily target ads to those same demographics. Further, when one user buys something, notifications may be sent through unsuspecting options to friends of the user trying to "convince" them into purchasing more of the same item. I've been to some internal meetings for social network tracking. It's fantastic and scary in a crazy way how anything and everything of an individual user can be observed, tracked, deduced, and stored for later use to the company's advantage.

      Ads are what sometimes display at the left side of the SNS wall screens (your right side).

      In a truly funny sort of way, users that believe they have a free tool and are able to reach out to friends/family they have not met in years, are actually confirming their acceptance to be tracked (what I would like to call a "consensual phishing" scam on a huge magnitude), thereby opening up the playground for future spam, and/or malpractices. Note it is always to a company's advantage, since it forms the bottom line of the firm. Users are but a basis for them to improve their profit margins.

      • 2 Replies to my_views_on_this_topic
      • Bravo! I've been trying to convince many facebook users of this fact. Unfortunately, most do not care or think you are paranoid. The new tracking era is growing rapidly.

        Here's an example:

        A recent Facebook acquisition, ambient social location startup Glancee, could prove very useful in this area. Glancee knows where you are, runs in the background of your phone and tells you when a friend of yours is nearby. When integrated within Facebook, that could be a powerful tool. Thinking a step further though, Facebook could also use Glancee’s technology to connect not just people to people, but also people to stores, merchants and restaurants. All Glancee needs to do is treat physical locations like it does people and add some type of incentive for the user to go to that business, with which Facebook has presumably cut a deal. That could be a location-aware push notification based on your interest graph. For instance, I like sports, I am passing a sports bar that is offering happy-hour specials, I get a push notification.

        What may appear cool and innocent in its convenience will someday be an obvious intrusion. Best known as function creep.

      • so what? go live in a cave then.

    • BASH BASH BASH. I bet as soon as you bash FB you're high-fiving your other unemployed friends saying "that was a good one, eh Darryl" Hehe

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