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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

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  • gf995 gf995 Aug 17, 2012 3:00 PM Flag

    Time to Fry shorties!!!

    The shorts were already warned, so I don't think anyone need be concerned about their welfare at this point. Shorts should be ecstatic about the last few months, take profits and use them to buy GOOG, AAPL or MSFT. Or go and short LNKD which is wildly overpriced.

    I do think it's time to step back and see that the market is very supportive of FB @ $19-20 despite a an absolutely over the top TOTAL barrage of media and casual investor negativity, a flood of unlocking shares, and the underlying pure antipathy that has been heaped on the company simply because it defied usual IPO protocol of underpricing so that a spike would ensue.

    Had FB been priced conservatively @ $18-27, this barrage of hate likely would have evaporated by now. If FB truly was only worth BV of $7, the stock should have already dropped to $15 today, if it had no real value.

    The behavior of the stock shows that is a story stock, it's not a mature traded stock yet, and the idea that it is only a buy at 10x earnings at this point it quite naive.

    Eveyone now knows that the IPO price was inflated to leave no money on the table, which is the CEO's right to do. However, insiders and employees have little motivation to sell all their shares under $20, when they know that the intrinsic value could be more than double in 2013. Also with a republican house likely, the odds of raising the capital gains taxes in the short run are slim.

    Obviously the stock could tank further to $15 next week. However the odds of that happening have lessened to 20%. The odds of FB going up to $40 in 6 months are certainly now at least 50/50.

    I like the odds. Most speculators like the odds as well, and that's why they are not pushing the price down below $18. No one wants to be known as the guy that sold FB at $17, when in 2014 the stock could be at $170 if a few things fall into place.

    FB is still a great speculative buy @ $19. If it's still @ $18-19 on Tuesday, speculators should jump in. With even just a little bit of good news, this stock can certainly double in less than a year. Buyers will jump in, and just aren't letting the stock drop much below $20.

    I'm buying today, Mon and Tuesday on the blip downwards. If insiders don't sell next wk, they aren't going to sell until we see $24.

    Zuckerberg and the hedge funds have made it clear that they feel FB is in the red zone now, and we all know the underlying problem for short term investors is that Zuckerberg simply did not want to leave one penny left on the table. He probably was annoyed that he was forced to go public due to regulatory pressures.

    BOTTOM LINE - FB is a buy at any price under $20. FB isn't going out of business. All the ridicule and the doom in the media and on message boards makes for a great short term story. Media love to have a goliath was toppled story. But everyone knows that if FB only even meets expectations the next 2 quarters, FB will double in less that year. That's much more likely than Zuckerberg, Sandberg and GS letting the price slip into single digits and bring employee morale down so that valuable people just pick and go to GOOG, PINTEREST or TWITTER.

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