The Oct 29 unlocked employee shares are for current employees, who typically would only sell part of their holdings. The Nov 14 un-locked shares are for former employees and VCs, who would SELL OFF till the stock price goes down to $15.
Oct 29 unlocked shares were only 180 million shares after FB took some back for withheld taxes. The current employees only sold part of it because they need to show their confidence and loyalty. So probably only 50-90 million shares have been sold.
But the Nov 14 unlocked shares are massive, near 800 million shares, and the holders - former employees do not need to maintain any shares. They can do what Justin did: SELL OFF.
You guys just can't get it through your heads that you were fed poop and told it was steak, can you? No one outside of a total dolf would click on a FB ad except by mistake and if you start charging a user fee people will leave FB by the millions. I have a teenager who I am in tune with and I'm here to tell you, he, his girlfriend and most of their friends are bored with FB and considering it an old lame dinosaur that only the dorks, geeks, creepers and braggers frequent. Start looking for the scam because this one has ran it's course.
Actually a lot of so called active FB users are not active at all. I have a FB account, and I do not use it at all, but FB always sends me automatic emails. I believe FB has counted me as an active user.
My son and his classmates use FB, but they never ever have intention of clicking any ads, and they hate those "likes". Unfortunately, sometimes they would accidentally click them, -- this is probably FB's main revenue stream.
I dont think longtard muppets have any clue how much power the underwriters and early investors have in this stock. 800 million shares represent staggering 16 billion dollars in value at these levels. They all have in interest to keep the stock as high up as possible for this lockup. Employees and the public in general will be the ones taking the bill. Wouldnt surprise me if the owners of unlocking shares and underwriters have an agreement on how high the stock should trade at before the lockups. And then an agreement for how high the stock needs to trade before the last big lockup in December. And when that is done, even the underwriters and MM will abandon this thing they call technology stock. It should give you an idea how manipulated this stock really is when you see Apple and Google, companies that actually produce MANY things and provide valuable services, fall by 15-20% in the past month, while FB makes a giant leap from 20 to 24 on cra4ppy Q3. And is back to 20s in a matter of week.
They will keep the stock at around these levels till the lockup comes...and then this will be the last time we see 20s on FB..in a long time!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It doesn't fall because people haven't smartened up yet to the horrible mistake they've made for themselves and their future.
Denial is deep with the fools STILL holding at 40 bucks a share.
You have some long term holders who don't want to sell, and don't know how to trade, that will sit through this unlock. They'd be far better of selling and repurchasing on sale when the unlocked shares get sold.
I've done the math. With previous lockup expirations, the stock dropped significantly. 5% with the 234 million shares and 6.3% with the 271 million shares. All things being equal, we can assume that with the 773 million lockups expiring on Nov 14th, that whatever the price is on Nov 13th, the price will drop about 17.5% on the 14th (with a 2% to 3% margin of error). This would mean that if facebook is trading at $20 on the 13th, it should drop to around $16.50 the next day. If its trading at $22, it should drop to around $18.15. Its a very high degree of probability this will occur, the question is though, with that big of a drop on the 14th, will that continue the drop and induce panic selling and margin calls till friday the 16th (on option expiry).
Sentiment: Strong Sell
This FB expiration will prove to be the MOTHER OF ALL LOCKUP EXPIRATION SELLOFFS.....Teh Media is trying to downplay this, but if you look at the technicals on the major indices going into this expy, it doesn't look good at all...Plus, FB is currently at the top of its range....Lots of downside here folks......Stay away!!!
You may be right at $12.00, but that does not constitute a buying opportunity.
If you still remain bullish on this stock, watch next quarter's earnings. If they should fail to meet the street's expecations, there is no doubt one must SELL and close out their position
Hopefully, you'll be in a position whereby one's capital loss on this can be offest from one's capital gains from other security holdings.
Facebook should only be held by those who are willing to put THEIR ENTIRE INVESTMENT AT RISK!!!!